Uruguay Primera División · Clausura - 9

Club Nacional vs Atletico Torque

· Gran Parque Central, Montevideo· Referee Gustavo Tejera

Full time2 – 0

Alin prediction was Atletico Torque to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Club NacionalDrawAtletico Torque

Club Nacional vs Atletico Torque: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceClub NacionalDrawAtletico Torque
Model35%27%38%
Market———
Published35%27%38%
Edge———

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Club Nacional and Atletico Torque expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.44Club Nacional
1.51Atletico Torque
Total expected goals
2.95
Attack rating (Club Nacional / Atletico Torque)
1.14 / 1.40
Defence rating (Club Nacional / Atletico Torque)
1.01 / 0.97

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Club Nacional vs Atletico Torque score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.4% 6.8% 6.0% 3.0% 1.6% 1 6.4% 12.5% 8.6% 4.3% 2.3% 2 5.4% 8.2% 6.2% 3.1% 1.6% 3 2.6% 3.9% 3.0% 1.5% 0.8% 4+ 1.3% 1.9% 1.5% 0.7% 0.4%

Rows: Club Nacional goals. Columns: Atletico Torque goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Club Nacional vs Atletico Torque goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 57%
Over 3.5 34%
Both teams to score
61%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Club Nacional vs Atletico Torque

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Club Nacional35%2.86
Draw27%3.73
Atletico Torque38%2.62
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.557%1.77
Under 2.543%2.30
Both teams to scoreYes61%1.65
No39%2.54
Double chance1X (Club Nacional or draw)62%1.62
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Atletico Torque)65%1.54
Handicap -1Atletico Torque win by 2+19%5.24
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Club Nacional and Atletico Torque recent form

Club Nacional 4W 2D 0L
Atletico Torque 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Club Nacional at home

Record (W-D-L)
8-2-5
Win rate
53%
Goals for / match
1.60
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
5 of 15
  • They have won 15 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atletico Torque away

Record (W-D-L)
8-4-2
Win rate
57%
Goals for / match
1.71
Goals against / match
0.86
Clean sheets
4 of 14
  • They have won 16 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Club Nacional at home only, Atletico Torque away only.

Club Nacional vs Atletico Torque head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Club Nacional 7 · draws 2 · Atletico Torque 1.

Club NacionalDrawsAtletico Torque
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-15Atletico Torque1-2Club NacionalUruguay Primera División
2026-03-28Atletico Torque2-3Club NacionalUruguay Primera División
2025-08-02Club Nacional5-2Atletico TorquePrimera División - Clausura
2025-06-01Atletico Torque1-2Club NacionalUruguay Primera División
2025-02-02Atletico Torque1-0Club NacionalUruguay Primera División
2024-11-23Club Nacional4-0Atletico TorqueCopa Uruguay
2023-12-07Club Nacional1-1Atletico TorquePrimera División - Clausura
2023-05-14Atletico Torque0-4Club NacionalPrimera División - Apertura
2022-08-27Atletico Torque0-3Club NacionalPrimera División - Clausura
2022-03-13Club Nacional1-1Atletico TorquePrimera División - Apertura

Other Clausura - 9 fixtures