Cerro vs Wanderers: model vs market
| Source | Cerro | Draw | Wanderers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 29% | 33% |
| Market | 34% | 30% | 37% |
| Published | 35% | 30% | 36% |
| Edge | +4% | 0% | -4% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Cerro vs Wanderers odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Wanderers, 15 snapshots since 2026-09-27.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cerro | 2.60 | 2.70 | +0.10 |
| Draw | 2.97 | 3.09 | +0.12 |
| Wanderers | 2.58 | 2.50 | -0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cerro and Wanderers expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.52
- Attack rating (Cerro / Wanderers)
- 0.91 / 1.15
- Defence rating (Cerro / Wanderers)
- 0.98 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cerro vs Wanderers score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cerro goals. Columns: Wanderers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cerro vs Wanderers goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cerro vs Wanderers
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cerro | 35% | 2.86 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.39 | |
| Wanderers | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.17 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.90 |
| No | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cerro or draw) | 64% | 1.55 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Wanderers) | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Handicap -1 | Wanderers win by 2+ | 14% | 7.05 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Cerro and Wanderers recent form
Cerro
2W 2D 2L
Wanderers
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cerro at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-3-5
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 0.79
- Goals against / match
- 0.71
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
- They have won 9 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 30 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Wanderers away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-2-8
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.81
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 13 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cerro at home only, Wanderers away only.
Cerro vs Wanderers head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Cerro 2 · draws 3 · Wanderers 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Wanderers | 1-1 | Cerro | Copa Uruguay |
| 2026-03-28 | Wanderers | 3-0 | Cerro | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2025-09-26 | Wanderers | 0-1 | Cerro | Primera División - Clausura |
| 2025-06-01 | Cerro | 1-2 | Wanderers | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2025-03-31 | Cerro | 2-1 | Wanderers | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2024-08-16 | Wanderers | 1-0 | Cerro | Primera División - Clausura |
| 2024-02-18 | Cerro | 1-1 | Wanderers | Primera División - Apertura |
| 2023-11-03 | Cerro | 0-1 | Wanderers | Primera División - Clausura |
| 2023-03-25 | Wanderers | 3-0 | Cerro | Primera División - Apertura |
| 2023-01-26 | Wanderers | 0-0 | Cerro | Friendlies Clubs |
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