Racing Montevideo vs Penarol: model vs market
| Source | Racing Montevideo | Draw | Penarol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23% | 33% | 44% |
| Market | 26% | 30% | 44% |
| Published | 25% | 31% | 44% |
| Edge | -3% | +3% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.18 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Racing Montevideo vs Penarol odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Penarol, 15 snapshots since 2026-09-27.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Montevideo | 3.25 | 3.50 | +0.25 |
| Draw | 3.08 | 3.00 | -0.08 |
| Penarol | 2.12 | 2.07 | -0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Racing Montevideo and Penarol expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.95
- Attack rating (Racing Montevideo / Penarol)
- 0.84 / 1.46
- Defence rating (Racing Montevideo / Penarol)
- 0.76 / 0.71
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Racing Montevideo vs Penarol score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Racing Montevideo goals. Columns: Penarol goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Racing Montevideo vs Penarol goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 39%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Racing Montevideo vs Penarol
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Racing Montevideo | 25% | 3.97 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.23 | |
| Penarol | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31% | 3.23 |
| Under 2.5 | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39% | 2.59 |
| No | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Racing Montevideo or draw) | 56% | 1.78 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or Penarol) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| Handicap -1 | Penarol win by 2+ | 20% | 5.05 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Racing Montevideo and Penarol recent form
Racing Montevideo
2W 2D 2L
Penarol
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Racing Montevideo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-5-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.47
- Goals against / match
- 0.73
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 15
- They have won 14 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Penarol away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-3-2
- Win rate
- 64%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.57
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 14
- They have won 19 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Racing Montevideo at home only, Penarol away only.
Racing Montevideo vs Penarol head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Racing Montevideo 2 · draws 4 · Penarol 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Racing Montevideo | 1-1 | Penarol | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2026-03-29 | Penarol | 1-2 | Racing Montevideo | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2026-01-20 | Penarol | 1-0 | Racing Montevideo | Copa De La Liga Auf |
| 2025-08-31 | Racing Montevideo | 1-4 | Penarol | Primera División - Clausura |
| 2025-03-09 | Penarol | 0-2 | Racing Montevideo | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2024-09-30 | Penarol | 0-0 | Racing Montevideo | Primera División - Clausura |
| 2024-06-16 | Penarol | 1-1 | Racing Montevideo | Primera División - Apertura |
| 2024-03-15 | Racing Montevideo | 1-2 | Penarol | Primera División - Apertura |
| 2023-12-02 | Penarol | 1-1 | Racing Montevideo | Primera División - Clausura |
| 2023-05-08 | Racing Montevideo | 0-2 | Penarol | Primera División - Apertura |
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