Uruguay Primera División · Clausura - 9

Deportivo Maldonado vs Central Espanol

· Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel, Maldonado· Referee Javier Feres

Full time3 – 0

Alin prediction was Deportivo Maldonado to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

20% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Deportivo MaldonadoDrawCentral Espanol

Deportivo Maldonado vs Central Espanol: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceDeportivo MaldonadoDrawCentral Espanol
Model66%25%8%
Market57%24%18%
Published60%25%16%
Edge+9%+1%-10%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.62 vs 0.43.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Deportivo Maldonado below the model: +9.0 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Deportivo Maldonado vs Central Espanol odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Deportivo Maldonado, 13 snapshots since 2026-09-27.

Opened 1.65Now 1.60 -0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Deportivo Maldonado1.651.60-0.05
Draw3.403.75+0.35
Central Espanol4.825.00+0.18

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Deportivo Maldonado and Central Espanol expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.62Deportivo Maldonado
0.43Central Espanol
Total expected goals
2.05
Attack rating (Deportivo Maldonado / Central Espanol)
1.10 / 0.62
Defence rating (Deportivo Maldonado / Central Espanol)
0.64 / 1.14

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Deportivo Maldonado vs Central Espanol score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.7% 4.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 1 19.9% 9.8% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 2 16.9% 7.3% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 3 9.2% 3.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 5.3% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Deportivo Maldonado goals. Columns: Central Espanol goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Deportivo Maldonado vs Central Espanol goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 86%
Over 1.5 62%
Over 2.5 34%
Over 3.5 15%
Both teams to score
29%
No goals (0–0)
14%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Deportivo Maldonado vs Central Espanol

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Deportivo Maldonado60%1.68
Draw25%4.06
Central Espanol16%6.31
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.534%2.96
Under 2.566%1.51
Both teams to scoreYes29%3.45
No71%1.41
Double chance1X (Deportivo Maldonado or draw)84%1.19
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Central Espanol)40%2.47
Handicap -1Deportivo Maldonado win by 2+38%2.62
Push (exactly one goal)28%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Deportivo Maldonado and Central Espanol recent form

Deportivo Maldonado 3W 1D 2L
Central Espanol 0W 2D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Deportivo Maldonado at home

Record (W-D-L)
10-4-1
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.73
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
8 of 15
  • They have won 16 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 13 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Central Espanol away

Record (W-D-L)
4-4-6
Win rate
29%
Goals for / match
0.93
Goals against / match
1.36
Clean sheets
7 of 14
  • They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Deportivo Maldonado at home only, Central Espanol away only.

Deportivo Maldonado vs Central Espanol head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Deportivo Maldonado 4 · draws 3 · Central Espanol 3.

Deportivo MaldonadoDrawsCentral Espanol
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-31Central Espanol2-1Deportivo MaldonadoUruguay Primera División
2025-08-19Central Espanol0-2Deportivo MaldonadoSegunda División
2025-05-31Deportivo Maldonado0-0Central EspanolSegunda División
2019-08-20Central Espanol0-1Deportivo MaldonadoSegunda División
2019-05-11Deportivo Maldonado1-0Central EspanolSegunda División
2018-08-04Central Espanol0-0Deportivo MaldonadoSegunda División
2018-03-10Deportivo Maldonado2-0Central EspanolSegunda División
2017-12-02Deportivo Maldonado0-0Central EspanolSegunda División
2017-11-29Central Espanol2-0Deportivo MaldonadoSegunda División
2017-10-07Central Espanol1-0Deportivo MaldonadoSegunda División

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