Boston River vs Juventud: model vs market
| Source | Boston River | Draw | Juventud |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 31% | 41% |
| Market | 36% | 28% | 37% |
| Published | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| Edge | -8% | +4% | +4% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Juventud below the model: +4.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Boston River vs Juventud odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Juventud, 14 snapshots since 2026-09-27.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston River | 2.70 | 2.55 | -0.15 |
| Draw | 3.18 | 3.30 | +0.12 |
| Juventud | 2.31 | 2.47 | +0.16 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Boston River and Juventud expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.23
- Attack rating (Boston River / Juventud)
- 0.82 / 0.93
- Defence rating (Boston River / Juventud)
- 1.25 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Boston River vs Juventud score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Boston River goals. Columns: Juventud goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Boston River vs Juventud goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Boston River vs Juventud
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Boston River | 34% | 2.97 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.51 | |
| Juventud | 38% | 2.64 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.18 |
| No | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Boston River or draw) | 62% | 1.61 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Juventud) | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Handicap -1 | Juventud win by 2+ | 19% | 5.31 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Boston River and Juventud recent form
Boston River
1W 1D 4L
Juventud
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Boston River at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-4-6
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.93
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 14
- They have won 8 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 30 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Juventud away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-6-6
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.19
- Goals against / match
- 1.44
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 9 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Boston River at home only, Juventud away only.
Boston River vs Juventud head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Boston River 7 · draws 1 · Juventud 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | Juventud | 1-2 | Boston River | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2025-10-04 | Boston River | 0-0 | Juventud | Primera División - Clausura |
| 2025-06-02 | Boston River | 3-2 | Juventud | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2025-04-05 | Juventud | 4-1 | Boston River | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2019-11-06 | Boston River | 2-1 | Juventud | Primera División - Clausura |
| 2019-07-28 | Juventud | 1-0 | Boston River | Primera División - Clausura |
| 2019-04-21 | Juventud | 0-1 | Boston River | Primera División - Apertura |
| 2017-11-25 | Boston River | 3-1 | Juventud | Primera División - Clausura |
| 2017-05-07 | Juventud | 2-5 | Boston River | Primera División - Apertura |
| 2016-10-02 | Juventud | 0-1 | Boston River | Primera División - Apertura |
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