Uruguay Primera División · Clausura - 9

Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso

· Estadio Alfredo Victor Viera, Montevideo· Referee Andrés Matías Matonte Cabrera

Full time3 – 2

Alin prediction was Liverpool Montevideo to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

16% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Liverpool MontevideoDrawProgreso

Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLiverpool MontevideoDrawProgreso
Model56%28%15%
Market55%25%19%
Published56%26%18%
Edge+1%+3%-4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 0.66.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Liverpool Montevideo, 12 snapshots since 2026-09-27.

Opened 1.57Now 1.65 +0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Liverpool Montevideo1.571.65+0.08
Draw3.673.60-0.07
Progreso5.004.70-0.30

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Liverpool Montevideo and Progreso expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.50Liverpool Montevideo
0.66Progreso
Total expected goals
2.16
Attack rating (Liverpool Montevideo / Progreso)
1.11 / 0.88
Defence rating (Liverpool Montevideo / Progreso)
0.70 / 1.04

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.7% 6.5% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 1 16.1% 12.6% 3.8% 0.8% 0.2% 2 12.9% 8.6% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 3 6.5% 4.3% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 3.4% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%

Rows: Liverpool Montevideo goals. Columns: Progreso goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%
Over 1.5 65%
Over 2.5 37%
Over 3.5 17%
Both teams to score
39%
No goals (0–0)
13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Liverpool Montevideo56%1.80
Draw26%3.83
Progreso18%5.44
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.537%2.73
Under 2.563%1.58
Both teams to scoreYes39%2.58
No61%1.63
Double chance1X (Liverpool Montevideo or draw)82%1.23
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Progreso)44%2.25
Handicap -1Liverpool Montevideo win by 2+30%3.32
Push (exactly one goal)26%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Liverpool Montevideo and Progreso recent form

Liverpool Montevideo 3W 2D 1L
Progreso 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Liverpool Montevideo at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-5-4
Win rate
36%
Goals for / match
1.21
Goals against / match
0.86
Clean sheets
9 of 14
  • They have won 12 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 14 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Progreso away

Record (W-D-L)
4-2-9
Win rate
27%
Goals for / match
0.73
Goals against / match
1.27
Clean sheets
2 of 15
  • They have won 8 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 13 of 30 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Liverpool Montevideo at home only, Progreso away only.

Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Liverpool Montevideo 5 · draws 2 · Progreso 3.

Liverpool MontevideoDrawsProgreso
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-31Progreso3-3Liverpool MontevideoUruguay Primera División
2025-10-26Liverpool Montevideo3-1ProgresoPrimera División - Clausura
2025-04-27Progreso0-2Liverpool MontevideoUruguay Primera División
2024-11-03Liverpool Montevideo2-1ProgresoPrimera División - Clausura
2024-04-28Progreso2-1Liverpool MontevideoPrimera División - Apertura
2021-10-03Liverpool Montevideo0-1ProgresoPrimera División - Clausura
2021-06-04Progreso1-3Liverpool MontevideoPrimera División - Apertura
2021-01-30Progreso0-4Liverpool MontevideoPrimera División - Clausura
2020-03-08Liverpool Montevideo1-1ProgresoPrimera División - Apertura
2019-09-22Progreso2-1Liverpool MontevideoPrimera División - Clausura

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