Danubio vs Cerro Largo: model vs market
| Source | Danubio | Draw | Cerro Largo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26% | 40% | 34% |
| Market | 46% | 30% | 25% |
| Published | 41% | 32% | 27% |
| Edge | -20% | +10% | +10% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Danubio vs Cerro Largo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Danubio, 14 snapshots since 2026-09-27.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Danubio | 2.25 | 2.00 | -0.25 |
| Draw | 2.92 | 3.10 | +0.18 |
| Cerro Largo | 3.12 | 3.70 | +0.58 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Danubio and Cerro Largo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.44
- Attack rating (Danubio / Cerro Largo)
- 0.52 / 0.73
- Defence rating (Danubio / Cerro Largo)
- 1.01 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Danubio vs Cerro Largo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Danubio goals. Columns: Cerro Largo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Danubio vs Cerro Largo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 27%
- No goals (0–0)
- 25%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Danubio vs Cerro Largo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Danubio | 41% | 2.45 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.11 | |
| Cerro Largo | 27% | 3.69 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 18% | 5.71 |
| Under 2.5 | 82% | 1.21 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 27% | 3.68 |
| No | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Danubio or draw) | 73% | 1.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| X2 (draw or Cerro Largo) | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Handicap -1 | Danubio win by 2+ | 7% | 13.68 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Danubio and Cerro Largo recent form
Danubio
0W 3D 3L
Cerro Largo
0W 4D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Danubio at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-8-4
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 0.93
- Goals against / match
- 1.07
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 14
- They have won 4 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 30 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cerro Largo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-7
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 0.71
- Goals against / match
- 1.21
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 14
- They have won 8 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 30 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Danubio at home only, Cerro Largo away only.
Danubio vs Cerro Largo head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Danubio 1 · draws 5 · Cerro Largo 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | Cerro Largo | 2-0 | Danubio | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2025-08-18 | Cerro Largo | 1-0 | Danubio | Primera División - Clausura |
| 2025-03-06 | Cerro Largo | 2-2 | Danubio | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| 2025-02-15 | Danubio | 0-0 | Cerro Largo | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2024-10-20 | Cerro Largo | 0-0 | Danubio | Primera División - Clausura |
| 2024-06-09 | Cerro Largo | 2-2 | Danubio | Primera División - Apertura |
| 2024-04-20 | Danubio | 1-1 | Cerro Largo | Primera División - Apertura |
| 2023-09-02 | Danubio | 2-0 | Cerro Largo | Primera División - Clausura |
| 2023-02-18 | Cerro Largo | 1-0 | Danubio | Primera División - Apertura |
| 2022-09-30 | Cerro Largo | 1-0 | Danubio | Primera División - Clausura |
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