Wales Premier League · Matchday 12

Airbus UK vs Trefelin

· The Airfield, Broughton· Referee A. D. Livesey

Full time3 – 0

Alin prediction was Airbus UK to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Airbus UKDrawTrefelin

Airbus UK vs Trefelin: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAirbus UKDrawTrefelin
Model71%19%11%
Market65%20%16%
Published66%19%14%
Edge+6%-1%-5%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.38 vs 0.85.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Airbus UK below the model: +6.0 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Airbus UK vs Trefelin odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Airbus UK, 7 snapshots since 2026-09-30.

Opened 1.44Now 1.40 -0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Airbus UK1.441.40-0.04
Draw4.554.60+0.05
Trefelin5.605.75+0.15

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Airbus UK and Trefelin expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.38Airbus UK
0.85Trefelin
Total expected goals
3.23
Attack rating (Airbus UK / Trefelin)
1.09 / 0.56
Defence rating (Airbus UK / Trefelin)
1.07 / 1.38

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Airbus UK vs Trefelin score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.7% 2.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 1 8.6% 8.8% 3.4% 1.0% 0.2% 2 11.2% 9.5% 4.0% 1.1% 0.3% 3 8.9% 7.6% 3.2% 0.9% 0.2% 4+ 9.3% 7.9% 3.4% 1.0% 0.2%

Rows: Airbus UK goals. Columns: Trefelin goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Airbus UK vs Trefelin goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 84%
Over 2.5 63%
Over 3.5 40%
Both teams to score
53%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Airbus UK vs Trefelin

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Airbus UK66%1.51
Draw19%5.16
Trefelin14%6.90
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563%1.60
Under 2.537%2.68
Both teams to scoreYes53%1.90
No47%2.12
Double chance1X (Airbus UK or draw)86%1.17
12 (either side)81%1.24
X2 (draw or Trefelin)34%2.95
Handicap -1Airbus UK win by 2+49%2.05
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Airbus UK and Trefelin recent form

Airbus UK 3W 0D 3L
Trefelin 0W 2D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Airbus UK at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-2
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
2.40
Goals against / match
1.40
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Trefelin away

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.60
Goals against / match
2.40
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 0 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 11 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Airbus UK at home only, Trefelin away only.

Airbus UK vs Trefelin head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: Airbus UK 1 · draws 0 · Trefelin 0.

Airbus UKDrawsTrefelin
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2022-11-12Airbus UK2-1TrefelinWelsh Cup

Other Matchday 12 fixtures