Wales Premier League · Matchday 12

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Penybont

· Essity Stadium, Flint· Referee I. A. Griffith

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was GAP Connah S Quay FC to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
GAP Connah S Quay FCDrawPenybont

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Penybont: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceGAP Connah S Quay FCDrawPenybont
Model45%28%27%
Market48%27%25%
Published47%27%26%
Edge-3%+1%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.52 vs 1.14.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Penybont odds movement

Median bookmaker price on GAP Connah S Quay FC, 9 snapshots since 2026-09-29.

Opened 2.09Now 1.89 -0.20
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
GAP Connah S Quay FC2.091.89-0.20
Draw3.203.34+0.14
Penybont3.343.62+0.28

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

GAP Connah S Quay FC and Penybont expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.52GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.14Penybont
Total expected goals
2.67
Attack rating (GAP Connah S Quay FC / Penybont)
1.35 / 1.22
Defence rating (GAP Connah S Quay FC / Penybont)
0.65 / 0.71

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Penybont score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.2% 6.7% 4.5% 1.7% 0.6% 1 9.4% 13.3% 6.9% 2.6% 1.0% 2 8.1% 9.2% 5.3% 2.0% 0.7% 3 4.1% 4.7% 2.7% 1.0% 0.4% 4+ 2.2% 2.5% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2%

Rows: GAP Connah S Quay FC goals. Columns: Penybont goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Penybont goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 76%
Over 2.5 50%
Over 3.5 28%
Both teams to score
54%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Penybont

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2GAP Connah S Quay FC47%2.12
Draw27%3.66
Penybont26%3.91
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550%2.01
Under 2.550%1.99
Both teams to scoreYes54%1.83
No46%2.20
Double chance1X (GAP Connah S Quay FC or draw)74%1.34
12 (either side)73%1.38
X2 (draw or Penybont)53%1.89
Handicap -1GAP Connah S Quay FC win by 2+23%4.33
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

GAP Connah S Quay FC and Penybont recent form

GAP Connah S Quay FC 4W 1D 1L
Penybont 5W 1D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

GAP Connah S Quay FC at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-1-1
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
2.50
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
4 of 6
  • They have won 8 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Penybont away

Record (W-D-L)
4-1-0
Win rate
80%
Goals for / match
2.60
Goals against / match
0.80
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 8 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.6 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: GAP Connah S Quay FC at home only, Penybont away only.

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Penybont head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: GAP Connah S Quay FC 5 · draws 3 · Penybont 2.

GAP Connah S Quay FCDrawsPenybont
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-21GAP Connah S Quay FC2-1PenybontWales Premier League
2026-02-14Penybont0-0GAP Connah S Quay FCWales Premier League
2025-11-08GAP Connah S Quay FC4-0PenybontWales Premier League
2025-08-30Penybont0-1GAP Connah S Quay FCWales Premier League
2025-01-04Penybont1-0GAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League
2024-09-15GAP Connah S Quay FC0-1PenybontPremier League
2024-01-13Penybont0-1GAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League
2023-09-30GAP Connah S Quay FC4-2PenybontPremier League
2023-04-15GAP Connah S Quay FC0-0PenybontPremier League
2023-03-11Penybont1-1GAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League

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