Wales Premier League · Matchday 12

Briton Ferry vs Colwyn Bay

· Old Road, Briton Ferry· Referee S. Davies

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was Colwyn Bay to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 2

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Briton FerryDrawColwyn Bay

Briton Ferry vs Colwyn Bay: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBriton FerryDrawColwyn Bay
Model17%24%59%
Market20%24%57%
Published19%24%57%
Edge-3%+1%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 0.94.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Colwyn Bay below the model: +2.1 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Briton Ferry vs Colwyn Bay odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Colwyn Bay, 7 snapshots since 2026-09-30.

Opened 1.67Now 1.62 -0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Briton Ferry4.404.60+0.20
Draw3.753.90+0.15
Colwyn Bay1.671.62-0.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Briton Ferry and Colwyn Bay expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.94Briton Ferry
1.89Colwyn Bay
Total expected goals
2.83
Attack rating (Briton Ferry / Colwyn Bay)
0.74 / 1.19
Defence rating (Briton Ferry / Colwyn Bay)
1.11 / 0.79

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Briton Ferry vs Colwyn Bay score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.0% 10.1% 10.6% 6.7% 4.8% 1 4.5% 11.5% 9.9% 6.2% 4.5% 2 2.6% 4.9% 4.6% 2.9% 2.1% 3 0.8% 1.5% 1.4% 0.9% 0.7% 4+ 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2%

Rows: Briton Ferry goals. Columns: Colwyn Bay goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Briton Ferry vs Colwyn Bay goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 54%
Over 3.5 31%
Both teams to score
53%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Briton Ferry vs Colwyn Bay

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Briton Ferry19%5.20
Draw24%4.23
Colwyn Bay57%1.75
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554%1.86
Under 2.546%2.16
Both teams to scoreYes53%1.90
No47%2.11
Double chance1X (Briton Ferry or draw)43%2.33
12 (either side)76%1.31
X2 (draw or Colwyn Bay)81%1.24
Handicap -1Colwyn Bay win by 2+35%2.84
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Briton Ferry and Colwyn Bay recent form

Briton Ferry 0W 2D 4L
Colwyn Bay 5W 0D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Briton Ferry at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Colwyn Bay away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-3
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.60
Goals against / match
2.20
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Briton Ferry at home only, Colwyn Bay away only.

Briton Ferry vs Colwyn Bay head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Briton Ferry 0 · draws 1 · Colwyn Bay 1.

Briton FerryDrawsColwyn Bay
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-10-25Briton Ferry0-2Colwyn BayWales Premier League
2025-08-30Colwyn Bay2-2Briton FerryWales Premier League

Other Matchday 12 fixtures