Wales Premier League · Matchday 12

Haverfordwest County AFC vs Flint Town United

· Bridge Meadow Stadium, Haverfordwest· Referee J. Harman

Full time0 – 1

Alin prediction was Haverfordwest County AFC to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Haverfordwest County AFCDrawFlint Town United

Haverfordwest County AFC vs Flint Town United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceHaverfordwest County AFCDrawFlint Town United
Model46%30%24%
Market49%26%25%
Published48%27%25%
Edge-3%+4%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.39 vs 0.93.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Haverfordwest County AFC vs Flint Town United odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Haverfordwest County AFC, 9 snapshots since 2026-09-29.

Opened 2.09Now 1.85 -0.24
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Haverfordwest County AFC2.091.85-0.24
Draw3.453.52+0.07
Flint Town United3.093.55+0.46

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Haverfordwest County AFC and Flint Town United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.39Haverfordwest County AFC
0.93Flint Town United
Total expected goals
2.32
Attack rating (Haverfordwest County AFC / Flint Town United)
0.68 / 0.76
Defence rating (Haverfordwest County AFC / Flint Town United)
0.86 / 1.29

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Haverfordwest County AFC vs Flint Town United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.1% 7.9% 4.2% 1.3% 0.4% 1 12.4% 14.0% 5.9% 1.8% 0.5% 2 9.5% 8.8% 4.1% 1.3% 0.4% 3 4.4% 4.1% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 4+ 2.1% 1.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Haverfordwest County AFC goals. Columns: Flint Town United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Haverfordwest County AFC vs Flint Town United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 69%
Over 2.5 41%
Over 3.5 20%
Both teams to score
47%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Haverfordwest County AFC vs Flint Town United

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Haverfordwest County AFC48%2.07
Draw27%3.74
Flint Town United25%3.99
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.541%2.44
Under 2.559%1.69
Both teams to scoreYes47%2.14
No53%1.88
Double chance1X (Haverfordwest County AFC or draw)75%1.33
12 (either side)73%1.36
X2 (draw or Flint Town United)52%1.93
Handicap -1Haverfordwest County AFC win by 2+23%4.35
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Haverfordwest County AFC and Flint Town United recent form

Haverfordwest County AFC 3W 1D 2L
Flint Town United 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Haverfordwest County AFC at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-3
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 6
  • They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 11 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Flint Town United away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-5
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
2.83
Clean sheets
0 of 6
  • They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Haverfordwest County AFC at home only, Flint Town United away only.

Haverfordwest County AFC vs Flint Town United head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Haverfordwest County AFC 6 · draws 2 · Flint Town United 2.

Haverfordwest County AFCDrawsFlint Town United
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-03Flint Town United0-1Haverfordwest County AFCWales Premier League
2026-03-01Haverfordwest County AFC1-3Flint Town UnitedWales Premier League
2025-12-20Flint Town United2-2Haverfordwest County AFCWales Premier League
2025-10-04Haverfordwest County AFC3-1Flint Town UnitedWales Premier League
2024-11-02Haverfordwest County AFC4-1Flint Town UnitedPremier League
2024-09-14Flint Town United1-0Haverfordwest County AFCPremier League
2023-04-01Flint Town United0-2Haverfordwest County AFCPremier League
2023-02-18Haverfordwest County AFC3-1Flint Town UnitedPremier League
2022-11-05Flint Town United0-1Haverfordwest County AFCPremier League
2022-09-24Haverfordwest County AFC1-1Flint Town UnitedPremier League

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