The New Saints vs Cambrian & Clydach: model vs market
| Source | The New Saints | Draw | Cambrian & Clydach |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 81% | 12% | 7% |
| Market | 86% | 9% | 5% |
| Published | 85% | 10% | 5% |
| Edge | -5% | +3% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.37 vs 1.02.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
The New Saints vs Cambrian & Clydach odds movement
Median bookmaker price on The New Saints, 9 snapshots since 2026-09-29.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| The New Saints | 1.10 | 1.08 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 8.20 | 10.00 | +1.80 |
| Cambrian & Clydach | 15.00 | 19.00 | +4.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
The New Saints and Cambrian & Clydach expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.39
- Attack rating (The New Saints / Cambrian & Clydach)
- 1.47 / 1.29
- Defence rating (The New Saints / Cambrian & Clydach)
- 0.55 / 1.44
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
The New Saints vs Cambrian & Clydach score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: The New Saints goals. Columns: Cambrian & Clydach goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
The New Saints vs Cambrian & Clydach goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for The New Saints vs Cambrian & Clydach
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | The New Saints | 85% | 1.18 |
| Draw | 10% | 10.10 | |
| Cambrian & Clydach | 5% | 18.40 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81% | 1.23 |
| Under 2.5 | 19% | 5.37 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.61 |
| No | 38% | 2.65 | |
| Double chance | 1X (The New Saints or draw) | 95% | 1.06 |
| 12 (either side) | 90% | 1.11 | |
| X2 (draw or Cambrian & Clydach) | 15% | 6.52 | |
| Handicap -1 | The New Saints win by 2+ | 65% | 1.55 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
The New Saints and Cambrian & Clydach recent form
The New Saints
6W 0D 0L
Cambrian & Clydach
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
The New Saints at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 6
- They have won 10 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Cambrian & Clydach away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-3
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 2.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: The New Saints at home only, Cambrian & Clydach away only.
The New Saints vs Cambrian & Clydach head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: The New Saints 1 · draws 0 · Cambrian & Clydach 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-16 | Cambrian & Clydach | 0-5 | The New Saints | Welsh Cup |
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