Wales Premier League · Matchday 12

Caernarfon Town vs Barry Town

· The Oval, Caernarfon· Referee B. Markham-Jones

Full time0 – 1

Alin prediction was Caernarfon Town to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 3 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Caernarfon TownDrawBarry Town

Caernarfon Town vs Barry Town: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCaernarfon TownDrawBarry Town
Model70%14%16%
Market61%21%18%
Published63%19%18%
Edge+9%-7%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.49 vs 1.75.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Caernarfon Town below the model: +9.3 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Caernarfon Town vs Barry Town odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Caernarfon Town, 9 snapshots since 2026-09-29.

Opened 1.89Now 1.50 -0.39
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Caernarfon Town1.891.50-0.39
Draw3.704.33+0.63
Barry Town3.445.00+1.56

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Caernarfon Town and Barry Town expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

3.49Caernarfon Town
1.75Barry Town
Total expected goals
5.24
Attack rating (Caernarfon Town / Barry Town)
1.79 / 1.29
Defence rating (Caernarfon Town / Barry Town)
0.95 / 1.23

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Caernarfon Town vs Barry Town score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 0.9% 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 1 1.5% 3.6% 2.8% 1.7% 1.1% 2 3.2% 5.7% 5.0% 2.9% 1.9% 3 3.8% 6.6% 5.8% 3.4% 2.2% 4+ 8.0% 14.0% 12.2% 7.2% 4.7%

Rows: Caernarfon Town goals. Columns: Barry Town goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Caernarfon Town vs Barry Town goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 99%
Over 1.5 97%
Over 2.5 89%
Over 3.5 77%
Both teams to score
80%
No goals (0–0)
1%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Caernarfon Town vs Barry Town

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Caernarfon Town63%1.59
Draw19%5.16
Barry Town18%5.70
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.589%1.12
Under 2.511%9.44
Both teams to scoreYes80%1.24
No20%5.12
Double chance1X (Caernarfon Town or draw)82%1.21
12 (either side)81%1.24
X2 (draw or Barry Town)37%2.71
Handicap -1Caernarfon Town win by 2+53%1.88
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Caernarfon Town and Barry Town recent form

Caernarfon Town 3W 2D 1L
Barry Town 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Caernarfon Town at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-2
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
3.60
Goals against / match
1.20
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 3.2 goals per match.
  • They average 3.6 goals per game at home against 2.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Barry Town away

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-2
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
2.40
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Caernarfon Town at home only, Barry Town away only.

Caernarfon Town vs Barry Town head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Caernarfon Town 5 · draws 2 · Barry Town 3.

Caernarfon TownDrawsBarry Town
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-21Barry Town2-1Caernarfon TownWales Premier League
2026-02-14Caernarfon Town0-2Barry TownWales Premier League
2025-10-11Barry Town2-2Caernarfon TownWales Premier League
2025-09-07Caernarfon Town3-1Barry TownWales Premier League
2025-04-26Caernarfon Town5-2Barry TownPremier League
2024-12-14Caernarfon Town3-2Barry TownPremier League
2024-09-21Barry Town1-1Caernarfon TownPremier League
2023-11-19Caernarfon Town2-3Barry TownPremier League
2023-09-30Barry Town0-3Caernarfon TownPremier League
2022-02-26Barry Town1-2Caernarfon TownPremier League

Other Matchday 12 fixtures