Wales Premier League · Matchday 12

Ammanford AFC vs Holywell

· Ammanford Recreation Ground, Ammanford· Referee R. Wright

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was Holywell to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Ammanford AFCDrawHolywell

Ammanford AFC vs Holywell: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAmmanford AFCDrawHolywell
Model32%24%44%
Market33%26%42%
Published32%25%42%
Edge-1%-1%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 1.55.
  • The market prices Holywell below the model: +2.4 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Ammanford AFC vs Holywell odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Holywell, 9 snapshots since 2026-09-29.

Opened 2.39Now 2.15 -0.24
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Ammanford AFC2.602.75+0.15
Draw3.403.52+0.12
Holywell2.392.15-0.24

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Ammanford AFC and Holywell expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.55Ammanford AFC
1.86Holywell
Total expected goals
3.41
Attack rating (Ammanford AFC / Holywell)
0.59 / 0.76
Defence rating (Ammanford AFC / Holywell)
1.70 / 1.66

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ammanford AFC vs Holywell score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.3% 5.2% 5.7% 3.5% 2.5% 1 4.2% 10.5% 8.9% 5.5% 3.9% 2 4.0% 7.4% 6.9% 4.2% 3.0% 3 2.1% 3.8% 3.5% 2.2% 1.6% 4+ 1.1% 2.1% 1.9% 1.2% 0.9%

Rows: Ammanford AFC goals. Columns: Holywell goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ammanford AFC vs Holywell goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 66%
Over 3.5 44%
Both teams to score
67%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ammanford AFC vs Holywell

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Ammanford AFC32%3.09
Draw25%3.97
Holywell42%2.36
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566%1.51
Under 2.534%2.95
Both teams to scoreYes67%1.48
No33%3.07
Double chance1X (Ammanford AFC or draw)58%1.74
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Holywell)68%1.48
Handicap -1Holywell win by 2+25%4.05
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Ammanford AFC and Holywell recent form

Ammanford AFC 0W 1D 5L
Holywell 0W 2D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Ammanford AFC at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-4
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.60
Goals against / match
3.80
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 0 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 11 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

Holywell away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-5
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
3.60
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 0 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Ammanford AFC at home only, Holywell away only.

Other Matchday 12 fixtures