Wales Premier League · Matchday 12

Llandudno vs Cardiff MET

· Maesdu Park, Llandudno· Referee D. Morgan

Full time0 – 1

Alin prediction was Llandudno to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
LlandudnoDrawCardiff MET

Llandudno vs Cardiff MET: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLlandudnoDrawCardiff MET
Model31%24%45%
Market45%25%30%
Published41%25%34%
Edge-14%-1%+15%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Llandudno vs Cardiff MET odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Llandudno, 9 snapshots since 2026-09-29.

Opened 2.36Now 2.04 -0.32
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Llandudno2.362.04-0.32
Draw3.453.59+0.14
Cardiff MET2.603.00+0.40

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Llandudno and Cardiff MET expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.53Llandudno
1.89Cardiff MET
Total expected goals
3.42
Attack rating (Llandudno / Cardiff MET)
1.12 / 1.13
Defence rating (Llandudno / Cardiff MET)
1.16 / 0.86

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Llandudno vs Cardiff MET score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.2% 5.2% 5.8% 3.7% 2.7% 1 4.1% 10.4% 8.9% 5.6% 4.1% 2 3.8% 7.3% 6.8% 4.3% 3.1% 3 2.0% 3.7% 3.5% 2.2% 1.6% 4+ 1.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.2% 0.9%

Rows: Llandudno goals. Columns: Cardiff MET goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Llandudno vs Cardiff MET goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 66%
Over 3.5 45%
Both teams to score
67%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Llandudno vs Cardiff MET

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Llandudno41%2.43
Draw25%4.01
Cardiff MET34%2.94
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566%1.51
Under 2.534%2.98
Both teams to scoreYes67%1.48
No33%3.08
Double chance1X (Llandudno or draw)66%1.51
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Cardiff MET)59%1.70
Handicap -1Llandudno win by 2+15%6.73
Push (exactly one goal)16%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Llandudno and Cardiff MET recent form

Llandudno 1W 1D 4L
Cardiff MET 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Llandudno at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-1-0
Win rate
80%
Goals for / match
2.20
Goals against / match
0.80
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Cardiff MET away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-2
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.60
Goals against / match
0.60
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Llandudno at home only, Cardiff MET away only.

Llandudno vs Cardiff MET head-to-head

Last 8 meetings: Llandudno 1 · draws 2 · Cardiff MET 5.

LlandudnoDrawsCardiff MET
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2019-04-13Llandudno1-2Cardiff METPremier League
2019-02-16Cardiff MET3-0LlandudnoPremier League
2019-01-12Llandudno0-3Cardiff METPremier League
2018-09-16Cardiff MET0-1LlandudnoPremier League
2017-12-20Llandudno0-0Cardiff METPremier League
2017-10-08Cardiff MET1-0LlandudnoPremier League
2016-11-27Cardiff MET1-1LlandudnoPremier League
2016-09-18Llandudno0-1Cardiff METPremier League

Other Matchday 12 fixtures