Ammanford AFC vs Briton Ferry preview
In the fixture between Ammanford AFC and Briton Ferry, the 1X2 probabilities show Briton Ferry at 61% to win, while Ammanford AFC sits at 16%. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, with an expected goals tally of 0.95 for Ammanford AFC and 2.07 for Briton Ferry.
While Briton Ferry has a strong head-to-head record with 7 wins in the last 10 meetings, Ammanford AFC could challenge this if they improve their recent form, which includes 4 losses in their last 6 matches. The model indicates a 58% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance for both teams to score, suggesting potential for a high-scoring game.
Ammanford AFC vs Briton Ferry: model vs market
| Source | Ammanford AFC | Draw | Briton Ferry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 15% | 22% | 62% |
| Market | 17% | 22% | 60% |
| Published | 17% | 22% | 61% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.07 vs 0.95.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Ammanford AFC vs Briton Ferry odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Briton Ferry, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ammanford AFC | 4.17 | 5.22 | +1.06 |
| Draw | 3.67 | 4.03 | +0.35 |
| Briton Ferry | 1.75 | 1.50 | -0.25 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Ammanford AFC and Briton Ferry expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.02
- Attack rating (Ammanford AFC / Briton Ferry)
- 0.56 / 0.85
- Defence rating (Ammanford AFC / Briton Ferry)
- 1.71 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ammanford AFC vs Briton Ferry score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ammanford AFC goals. Columns: Briton Ferry goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ammanford AFC vs Briton Ferry goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ammanford AFC vs Briton Ferry
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ammanford AFC | 17% | 5.94 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.46 | |
| Briton Ferry | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.84 |
| No | 46% | 2.20 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ammanford AFC or draw) | 39% | 2.55 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Briton Ferry) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| Handicap -1 | Briton Ferry win by 2+ | 39% | 2.54 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Ammanford AFC and Briton Ferry recent form
Ammanford AFC
2W 0D 4L
Briton Ferry
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ammanford AFC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-5
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 0.71
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 7
- They have won 2 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 15 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Briton Ferry away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-5
- Win rate
- 12%
- Goals for / match
- 0.88
- Goals against / match
- 1.88
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 8
- They have won 4 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 15 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Ammanford AFC at home only, Briton Ferry away only.
Ammanford AFC vs Briton Ferry head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Ammanford AFC 2 · draws 1 · Briton Ferry 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Briton Ferry | 2-1 | Ammanford AFC | Wales Premier League |
| 2024-04-09 | Briton Ferry | 4-0 | Ammanford AFC | FAW Championship |
| 2024-02-24 | Ammanford AFC | 2-1 | Briton Ferry | FAW Championship |
| 2023-09-19 | Ammanford AFC | 0-1 | Briton Ferry | League Cup |
| 2023-02-10 | Ammanford AFC | 1-2 | Briton Ferry | FAW Championship |
| 2022-11-04 | Briton Ferry | 2-1 | Ammanford AFC | FAW Championship |
| 2022-03-04 | Briton Ferry | 1-0 | Ammanford AFC | FAW Championship |
| 2021-07-27 | Ammanford AFC | 4-3 | Briton Ferry | FAW Championship |
| 2019-12-13 | Ammanford AFC | 1-3 | Briton Ferry | FAW Championship |
| 2019-08-23 | Briton Ferry | 2-2 | Ammanford AFC | FAW Championship |
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Before and after this match
- Ammanford AFC, previous: Ammanford AFC vs Haverfordwest County AFC: odds and pick
- Briton Ferry, previous: Briton Ferry vs Llandudno prediction