Trefelin vs Colwyn Bay preview
In the fixture between Trefelin and Colwyn Bay, the 1X2 probabilities show Colwyn Bay at 69%, while Trefelin sits at only 11%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-2, which aligns with Colwyn Bay's expected goals of 2.24 compared to Trefelin's 0.65.
However, Trefelin's recent form includes two losses followed by a draw, which could impact their performance. Additionally, while Over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance, both teams to score is lower at 43%, indicating that Trefelin may struggle to find the net.
Trefelin vs Colwyn Bay: model vs market
| Source | Trefelin | Draw | Colwyn Bay |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 8% | 19% | 73% |
| Market | 14% | 21% | 65% |
| Published | 12% | 20% | 67% |
| Edge | -1% | -1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 0.65.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.44, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Trefelin vs Colwyn Bay odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Colwyn Bay, 5 snapshots since 2026-11-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trefelin | 10.00 | 6.54 | -3.46 |
| Draw | 5.20 | 4.25 | -0.95 |
| Colwyn Bay | 1.22 | 1.37 | +0.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Trefelin and Colwyn Bay expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.89
- Attack rating (Trefelin / Colwyn Bay)
- 0.55 / 1.13
- Defence rating (Trefelin / Colwyn Bay)
- 1.39 / 0.73
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Trefelin vs Colwyn Bay score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Trefelin goals. Columns: Colwyn Bay goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Trefelin vs Colwyn Bay goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Trefelin vs Colwyn Bay
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Trefelin | 12% | 8.10 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.90 | |
| Colwyn Bay | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.30 |
| No | 57% | 1.77 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Trefelin or draw) | 33% | 3.05 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Colwyn Bay) | 88% | 1.14 | |
| Handicap -1 | Colwyn Bay win by 2+ | 50% | 2.01 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Trefelin and Colwyn Bay recent form
Trefelin
1W 1D 4L
Colwyn Bay
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Trefelin at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-6
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.29
- Goals against / match
- 2.43
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 7
- They have won 1 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 15 matches.
Colwyn Bay away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-4
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 1.71
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 9 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 15 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Trefelin at home only, Colwyn Bay away only.
Trefelin vs Colwyn Bay head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Trefelin 0 · draws 0 · Colwyn Bay 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Colwyn Bay | 2-0 | Trefelin | Wales Premier League |
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
- Llandudno vs The New Saints 2026-11-06
- Ammanford AFC v Briton Ferry — match page 2026-11-06
- Penybont vs Caernarfon Town — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Haverfordwest County AFC vs Cardiff MET 2026-11-06
- Cambrian & Clydach v Barry Town — match page 2026-11-06
- Holywell vs Airbus UK — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Flint Town United — team news & stats 2026-11-06
Before and after this match
- Trefelin, previous: Barry Town v Trefelin analysis
- Colwyn Bay, previous: Colwyn Bay v Cambrian & Clydach analysis