Updated

Wales Premier League · Matchday 16

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Flint Town United

· Essity Stadium, Flint· Referee R. Jenkins

Alin prediction GAP Connah S Quay FC to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 1 – 0

14% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
GAP Connah S Quay FCDrawFlint Town United
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 0.71.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — GAP Connah S Quay FC is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
GAP Connah S Quay FC1.40 Draw5.00 Flint Town United7.20

Price as of

Expected return at 1.40: -8.1% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Flint Town United preview

GAP Connah S Quay FC has a 67% chance of winning against Flint Town United, who sit at 13%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, predicted at 14%. GAP Connah S Quay FC's expected goals are 1.75, while Flint Town United's are only 0.71.

However, the match could go differently if Flint Town United manages to score, as both teams to score stands at 43%. Recent form shows GAP Connah S Quay FC is on a strong run with 6 games unbeaten, while Flint Town United has mixed results with 4 wins in their last 6. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Flint Town United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceGAP Connah S Quay FCDrawFlint Town United
Model61%25%14%
Market67%19%14%
Published66%21%14%
Edge-1%+1%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 0.71.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.40, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Flint Town United odds movement

Median bookmaker price on GAP Connah S Quay FC, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.

Opened 1.46Now 1.33 -0.12
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
GAP Connah S Quay FC1.461.33-0.12
Draw4.354.70+0.35
Flint Town United5.976.50+0.53

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

GAP Connah S Quay FC and Flint Town United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.75GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.71Flint Town United
Total expected goals
2.47
Attack rating (GAP Connah S Quay FC / Flint Town United)
1.18 / 1.01
Defence rating (GAP Connah S Quay FC / Flint Town United)
0.50 / 0.92

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Flint Town United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.5% 5.0% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 1 13.8% 11.7% 3.8% 0.9% 0.2% 2 13.0% 9.3% 3.3% 0.8% 0.2% 3 7.6% 5.4% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 5.0% 3.5% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: GAP Connah S Quay FC goals. Columns: Flint Town United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Flint Town United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 72%
Over 2.5 45%
Over 3.5 24%
Both teams to score
43%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Flint Town United

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2GAP Connah S Quay FC66%1.52
Draw21%4.86
Flint Town United14%7.26
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.545%2.23
Under 2.555%1.81
Both teams to scoreYes43%2.31
No57%1.76
Double chance1X (GAP Connah S Quay FC or draw)86%1.16
12 (either side)79%1.26
X2 (draw or Flint Town United)34%2.91
Handicap -1GAP Connah S Quay FC win by 2+36%2.78
Push (exactly one goal)25%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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GAP Connah S Quay FC and Flint Town United recent form

GAP Connah S Quay FC 5W 1D 0L
Flint Town United 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

GAP Connah S Quay FC at home

Record (W-D-L)
6-1-1
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
2.25
Goals against / match
0.38
Clean sheets
6 of 8
  • They have won 11 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 15 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Flint Town United away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-5
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
0.88
Goals against / match
2.12
Clean sheets
2 of 8
  • They have won 4 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 15 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 15 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

League matches this season before kick-off: GAP Connah S Quay FC at home only, Flint Town United away only.

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Flint Town United head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: GAP Connah S Quay FC 8 · draws 1 · Flint Town United 1.

GAP Connah S Quay FCDrawsFlint Town United
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-31Flint Town United1-2GAP Connah S Quay FCWales Premier League
2025-12-26Flint Town United0-2GAP Connah S Quay FCWales Premier League
2025-08-25GAP Connah S Quay FC3-2Flint Town UnitedWales Premier League
2025-03-11GAP Connah S Quay FC4-0Flint Town UnitedPremier League
2025-01-25Flint Town United2-1GAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League
2024-12-26GAP Connah S Quay FC7-2Flint Town UnitedPremier League
2024-08-26Flint Town United0-1GAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League
2023-12-09Flint Town United0-3GAP Connah S Quay FCWelsh Cup
2022-12-31Flint Town United0-0GAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League
2022-12-26GAP Connah S Quay FC2-0Flint Town UnitedPremier League

Other Matchday 16 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot GAP Connah S Quay FC to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on GAP Connah S Quay FC
Our pick: GAP Connah S Quay FC to win 18+ Bet Now