Penybont vs Caernarfon Town preview
In the match between Penybont and Caernarfon Town, the 1X2 probabilities show Penybont at 39%, Caernarfon Town at 35%, and a draw at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Penybont has a strong expected goals figure of 2.10, while Caernarfon Town sits at 1.55.
Both teams to score has a 70% likelihood, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 71%. Penybont's recent form shows 5 wins in their last 6 matches, while Caernarfon Town has mixed results with 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5. A surprising result could come from Caernarfon Town's ability to capitalize on their chances, given their recent performances.
Penybont vs Caernarfon Town: model vs market
| Source | Penybont | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 23% | 28% |
| Market | 38% | 28% | 34% |
| Published | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| Edge | +3% | -1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.10 vs 1.55.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Penybont below our published probability: +2.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.43, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Penybont vs Caernarfon Town odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Penybont, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Penybont | 2.62 | 2.37 | -0.26 |
| Draw | 3.38 | 3.25 | -0.12 |
| Caernarfon Town | 2.42 | 2.63 | +0.21 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Penybont and Caernarfon Town expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.65
- Attack rating (Penybont / Caernarfon Town)
- 1.41 / 1.61
- Defence rating (Penybont / Caernarfon Town)
- 0.67 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Penybont vs Caernarfon Town score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Penybont goals. Columns: Caernarfon Town goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Penybont vs Caernarfon Town goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Penybont vs Caernarfon Town
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penybont | 41% | 2.44 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.78 | |
| Caernarfon Town | 33% | 3.07 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.39 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.43 |
| No | 30% | 3.32 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Penybont or draw) | 67% | 1.48 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Caernarfon Town) | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Handicap -1 | Penybont win by 2+ | 30% | 3.36 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Penybont and Caernarfon Town recent form
Penybont
5W 0D 1L
Caernarfon Town
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Penybont at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-2-0
- Win rate
- 71%
- Goals for / match
- 1.71
- Goals against / match
- 0.86
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 10 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game on the road against 1.7 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Caernarfon Town away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-2-1
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 2.62
- Goals against / match
- 1.38
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 8
- They have won 9 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Penybont at home only, Caernarfon Town away only.
Penybont vs Caernarfon Town head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Penybont 5 · draws 1 · Caernarfon Town 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Caernarfon Town | 1-2 | Penybont | Wales Premier League |
| 2026-04-18 | Caernarfon Town | 2-0 | Penybont | Wales Premier League |
| 2026-01-24 | Penybont | 0-0 | Caernarfon Town | Wales Premier League |
| 2025-10-25 | Penybont | 0-2 | Caernarfon Town | Wales Premier League |
| 2025-09-20 | Caernarfon Town | 1-2 | Penybont | Wales Premier League |
| 2025-04-13 | Penybont | 3-1 | Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
| 2025-02-22 | Caernarfon Town | 3-2 | Penybont | Premier League |
| 2024-11-02 | Caernarfon Town | 1-5 | Penybont | Premier League |
| 2024-09-07 | Penybont | 2-0 | Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
| 2024-05-18 | Caernarfon Town | 3-1 | Penybont | Premier League |
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Before and after this match
- Penybont, previous: Cardiff MET vs Penybont prediction
- Caernarfon Town, previous: Airbus UK – Caernarfon Town, 2026-10-30