Updated

Wales Premier League · Matchday 16

Haverfordwest County AFC vs Cardiff MET

· Bridge Meadow Stadium, Haverfordwest· Referee R. Wright

Alin prediction Haverfordwest County AFC to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 1 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Haverfordwest County AFCDrawCardiff MET
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Haverfordwest County AFC is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Haverfordwest County AFC2.50 Draw3.62 Cardiff MET2.65

Price as of

Expected return at 2.50: -3.8% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Haverfordwest County AFC vs Cardiff MET preview

In the match between Haverfordwest County AFC and Cardiff MET, the 1X2 probabilities show Haverfordwest at 39%, Cardiff MET at 34%, and a draw at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 10% chance according to our model. Haverfordwest has an expected goals figure of 1.34, while Cardiff MET sits at 1.10, indicating a close contest.

Both teams to score stands at 51%, suggesting a fair chance of goals from both sides. However, Haverfordwest's recent form, with 3 losses in their last 6 matches, could impact their performance. Cardiff MET, on the other hand, has shown some resilience with 2 wins in their last 3 games. This could lead to a different outcome than predicted.

Haverfordwest County AFC vs Cardiff MET: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceHaverfordwest County AFCDrawCardiff MET
Model41%30%29%
Market38%26%36%
Published38%27%34%
Edge+1%+1%-2%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Haverfordwest County AFC vs Cardiff MET odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Haverfordwest County AFC, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.

Opened 2.47Now 2.39 -0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Haverfordwest County AFC2.472.39-0.08
Draw3.353.40+0.05
Cardiff MET2.582.51-0.07

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Haverfordwest County AFC and Cardiff MET expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.34Haverfordwest County AFC
1.10Cardiff MET
Total expected goals
2.45
Attack rating (Haverfordwest County AFC / Cardiff MET)
0.73 / 0.96
Defence rating (Haverfordwest County AFC / Cardiff MET)
0.81 / 1.14

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Haverfordwest County AFC vs Cardiff MET score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.0% 8.3% 5.3% 1.9% 0.7% 1 10.3% 14.1% 7.1% 2.6% 0.9% 2 7.8% 8.6% 4.8% 1.7% 0.6% 3 3.5% 3.8% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3% 4+ 1.6% 1.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Haverfordwest County AFC goals. Columns: Cardiff MET goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Haverfordwest County AFC vs Cardiff MET goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 71%
Over 2.5 44%
Over 3.5 23%
Both teams to score
51%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Haverfordwest County AFC vs Cardiff MET

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Haverfordwest County AFC38%2.60
Draw27%3.67
Cardiff MET34%2.92
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.544%2.26
Under 2.556%1.79
Both teams to scoreYes51%1.97
No49%2.03
Double chance1X (Haverfordwest County AFC or draw)66%1.52
12 (either side)73%1.38
X2 (draw or Cardiff MET)62%1.62
Handicap -1Haverfordwest County AFC win by 2+19%5.13
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Haverfordwest County AFC and Cardiff MET recent form

Haverfordwest County AFC 2W 0D 4L
Cardiff MET 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Haverfordwest County AFC at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-5
Win rate
38%
Goals for / match
0.88
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 8
  • They have won 5 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 15 matches.

Cardiff MET away

Record (W-D-L)
3-2-2
Win rate
43%
Goals for / match
1.57
Goals against / match
0.71
Clean sheets
3 of 7
  • They have won 6 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 15 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 15 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Haverfordwest County AFC at home only, Cardiff MET away only.

Haverfordwest County AFC vs Cardiff MET head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Haverfordwest County AFC 4 · draws 5 · Cardiff MET 1.

Haverfordwest County AFCDrawsCardiff MET
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-09-29Cardiff MET1-0Haverfordwest County AFCWales Premier League
2026-03-13Haverfordwest County AFC1-0Cardiff METWales Premier League
2026-01-23Cardiff MET0-2Haverfordwest County AFCWales Premier League
2025-12-30Cardiff MET0-0Haverfordwest County AFCWales Premier League
2025-08-22Haverfordwest County AFC2-2Cardiff METWales Premier League
2025-04-11Cardiff MET1-1Haverfordwest County AFCPremier League
2025-02-21Haverfordwest County AFC1-0Cardiff METPremier League
2024-09-27Haverfordwest County AFC1-0Cardiff METPremier League
2024-08-26Cardiff MET0-0Haverfordwest County AFCPremier League
2023-12-09Haverfordwest County AFC1-1Cardiff METWelsh Cup

Other Matchday 16 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Haverfordwest County AFC to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Haverfordwest County AFC
Our pick: Haverfordwest County AFC to win 18+ Bet Now