Holywell vs Airbus UK preview
In the match between Holywell and Airbus UK, the 1X2 probabilities show Airbus UK at 70%, while Holywell sits at just 13%. The most likely scoreline is 1-3, with an expected goals tally of Holywell 1.10 and Airbus UK 3.93. This suggests a strong advantage for Airbus UK, who are in better recent form with 5 wins in their last 6 matches compared to Holywell's 1 draw and 5 losses.
However, the match could deviate from this expectation if Holywell manages to score early or if Airbus UK underperforms. The model also indicates an 88% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance for both teams to score, highlighting the potential for a high-scoring game.
Holywell vs Airbus UK: model vs market
| Source | Holywell | Draw | Airbus UK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 6% | 9% | 85% |
| Market | 15% | 19% | 65% |
| Published | 13% | 17% | 70% |
| Edge | -2% | -3% | +5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.93 vs 1.10.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Airbus UK below our published probability: +5.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.44, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Holywell vs Airbus UK odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Airbus UK, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Holywell | 5.11 | 5.95 | +0.84 |
| Draw | 4.25 | 4.72 | +0.47 |
| Airbus UK | 1.53 | 1.39 | -0.14 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Holywell and Airbus UK expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 5.03
- Attack rating (Holywell / Airbus UK)
- 0.68 / 1.42
- Defence rating (Holywell / Airbus UK)
- 1.94 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Holywell vs Airbus UK score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Holywell goals. Columns: Airbus UK goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Holywell vs Airbus UK goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 1%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Holywell vs Airbus UK
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Holywell | 13% | 7.78 |
| Draw | 17% | 5.99 | |
| Airbus UK | 70% | 1.42 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 88% | 1.14 |
| Under 2.5 | 12% | 8.18 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.52 |
| No | 34% | 2.92 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Holywell or draw) | 30% | 3.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| X2 (draw or Airbus UK) | 87% | 1.15 | |
| Handicap -1 | Airbus UK win by 2+ | 72% | 1.39 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Holywell and Airbus UK recent form
Holywell
0W 1D 5L
Airbus UK
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Holywell at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-5
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 3.43
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 7
- They have won 0 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 14 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Airbus UK away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-4
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.62
- Goals against / match
- 1.62
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 8
- They have won 9 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 15 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Holywell at home only, Airbus UK away only.
Holywell vs Airbus UK head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Holywell 2 · draws 2 · Airbus UK 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Airbus UK | 6-2 | Holywell | Wales Premier League |
| 2026-04-03 | Holywell | 0-3 | Airbus UK | FAW Championship |
| 2025-10-03 | Airbus UK | 0-0 | Holywell | FAW Championship |
| 2025-01-25 | Holywell | 2-1 | Airbus UK | FAW Championship |
| 2024-10-25 | Airbus UK | 8-3 | Holywell | FAW Championship |
| 2023-12-16 | Holywell | 1-2 | Airbus UK | FAW Championship |
| 2023-11-04 | Airbus UK | 1-1 | Holywell | FAW Championship |
| 2022-04-18 | Holywell | 3-2 | Airbus UK | FAW Championship |
| 2021-10-09 | Airbus UK | 6-1 | Holywell | FAW Championship |
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
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- Penybont vs Caernarfon Town — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Haverfordwest County AFC vs Cardiff MET 2026-11-06
- Cambrian & Clydach v Barry Town — match page 2026-11-06
- Trefelin vs Colwyn Bay 2026-11-06
- GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Flint Town United — team news & stats 2026-11-06
Before and after this match
- Holywell, previous: Flint Town United vs Holywell: odds and pick
- Airbus UK, previous: Airbus UK – Caernarfon Town, 2026-10-30