Briton Ferry vs GAP Connah S Quay FC preview
Briton Ferry hosts GAP Connah S Quay FC, with the market showing a strong preference for the visitors at 67%. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 0.71 for Briton Ferry and 1.88 for GAP Connah S Quay FC. This suggests a dominant performance from the away side.
However, there are factors that could challenge this prediction. Both teams to score stands at 44%, indicating a chance for Briton Ferry to find the net. Additionally, GAP Connah S Quay FC's recent form includes one loss in their last six matches, which could affect their performance. The confidence grade is C, reflecting some uncertainty in the predictions.
Briton Ferry vs GAP Connah S Quay FC: model vs market
| Source | Briton Ferry | Draw | GAP Connah S Quay FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 12% | 23% | 64% |
| Market | 12% | 20% | 68% |
| Published | 12% | 21% | 67% |
| Edge | +1% | +3% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 0.71.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.34, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Briton Ferry vs GAP Connah S Quay FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on GAP Connah S Quay FC, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Briton Ferry | 4.94 | 7.75 | +2.81 |
| Draw | 3.85 | 4.50 | +0.65 |
| GAP Connah S Quay FC | 1.58 | 1.32 | -0.26 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Briton Ferry and GAP Connah S Quay FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.60
- Attack rating (Briton Ferry / GAP Connah S Quay FC)
- 0.76 / 1.30
- Defence rating (Briton Ferry / GAP Connah S Quay FC)
- 1.03 / 0.59
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Briton Ferry vs GAP Connah S Quay FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Briton Ferry goals. Columns: GAP Connah S Quay FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Briton Ferry vs GAP Connah S Quay FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Briton Ferry vs GAP Connah S Quay FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Briton Ferry | 12% | 8.45 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.79 | |
| GAP Connah S Quay FC | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.08 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.26 |
| No | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Briton Ferry or draw) | 33% | 3.06 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or GAP Connah S Quay FC) | 88% | 1.13 | |
| Handicap -1 | GAP Connah S Quay FC win by 2+ | 39% | 2.54 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Briton Ferry and GAP Connah S Quay FC recent form
Briton Ferry
1W 2D 3L
GAP Connah S Quay FC
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Briton Ferry at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
GAP Connah S Quay FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 2.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 8 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Briton Ferry at home only, GAP Connah S Quay FC away only.
Briton Ferry vs GAP Connah S Quay FC head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Briton Ferry 0 · draws 0 · GAP Connah S Quay FC 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-21 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 4-2 | Briton Ferry | Wales Premier League |
| 2025-10-11 | Briton Ferry | 0-3 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | Wales Premier League |
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