Flint Town United vs Colwyn Bay: model vs market
| Source | Flint Town United | Draw | Colwyn Bay |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19% | 25% | 56% |
| Market | 22% | 24% | 54% |
| Published | 21% | 24% | 54% |
| Edge | -3% | +1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 0.99.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Colwyn Bay below the model: +2.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.80, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Flint Town United vs Colwyn Bay odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Colwyn Bay, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flint Town United | 4.05 | 4.05 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.75 | +0.00 |
| Colwyn Bay | 1.68 | 1.68 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Flint Town United and Colwyn Bay expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.83
- Attack rating (Flint Town United / Colwyn Bay)
- 0.77 / 1.10
- Defence rating (Flint Town United / Colwyn Bay)
- 1.19 / 0.81
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Flint Town United vs Colwyn Bay score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Flint Town United goals. Columns: Colwyn Bay goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Flint Town United vs Colwyn Bay goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Flint Town United vs Colwyn Bay
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Flint Town United | 21% | 4.66 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.12 | |
| Colwyn Bay | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.85 |
| No | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Flint Town United or draw) | 46% | 2.19 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Colwyn Bay) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| Handicap -1 | Colwyn Bay win by 2+ | 33% | 3.05 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Flint Town United and Colwyn Bay recent form
Flint Town United
2W 1D 3L
Colwyn Bay
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Flint Town United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
Colwyn Bay away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-4
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Flint Town United at home only, Colwyn Bay away only.
Flint Town United vs Colwyn Bay head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Flint Town United 1 · draws 0 · Colwyn Bay 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-01 | Colwyn Bay | 1-2 | Flint Town United | Wales Premier League |
| 2025-10-07 | Flint Town United | 0-1 | Colwyn Bay | Wales Premier League |
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