Penybont vs Barry Town preview
Penybont faces Barry Town in the Wales Premier League, with a 49% probability for a Penybont win according to the model 1X2. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 64% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance for both teams to score.
Penybont's recent form shows they have won five out of their last six matches, while Barry Town has a mixed record with two wins in their last six. Despite Penybont's strong performance, the head-to-head record is close, with Penybont winning once and Barry Town winning twice in their last four meetings. This could influence the outcome, making it a competitive match.
Penybont vs Barry Town: model vs market
| Source | Penybont | Draw | Barry Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| Market | 48% | 27% | 26% |
| Published | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Edge | +6% | -3% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 1.27.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Penybont below the model: +6.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Penybont vs Barry Town odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Penybont, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Penybont | 1.90 | 1.90 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.40 | +0.00 |
| Barry Town | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Penybont and Barry Town expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.29
- Attack rating (Penybont / Barry Town)
- 1.13 / 1.24
- Defence rating (Penybont / Barry Town)
- 0.73 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Penybont vs Barry Town score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Penybont goals. Columns: Barry Town goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Penybont vs Barry Town goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Penybont vs Barry Town
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penybont | 49% | 2.03 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.88 | |
| Barry Town | 25% | 3.99 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.77 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.58 |
| No | 37% | 2.72 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Penybont or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Barry Town) | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Handicap -1 | Penybont win by 2+ | 33% | 3.07 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Penybont and Barry Town recent form
Penybont
5W 0D 1L
Barry Town
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Penybont at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 8 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Barry Town away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-2
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Penybont at home only, Barry Town away only.
Penybont vs Barry Town head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Penybont 1 · draws 1 · Barry Town 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Penybont | 0-2 | Barry Town | Wales Premier League |
| 2026-03-03 | Barry Town | 1-0 | Penybont | Wales Premier League |
| 2025-12-09 | Penybont | 1-1 | Barry Town | Wales Premier League |
| 2025-08-22 | Barry Town | 2-3 | Penybont | Wales Premier League |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Cardiff MET vs Trefelin — team news & stats 2026-10-09
- Llandudno vs Airbus UK 2026-10-09
- Haverfordwest County AFC vs Caernarfon Town — team news & stats 2026-10-09
- Briton Ferry vs GAP Connah S Quay FC 2026-10-09
- Cambrian & Clydach v Ammanford AFC — match page 2026-10-09
- Holywell vs The New Saints 2026-10-09
- Flint Town United vs Colwyn Bay — team news & stats 2026-10-10