Haverfordwest County AFC vs Caernarfon Town preview
Haverfordwest County AFC hosts Caernarfon Town with the market showing a 58% probability for an away win. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, which aligns with Caernarfon's expected goals of 1.96 compared to Haverfordwest's 0.95. This suggests a significant attacking advantage for the visitors.
However, Haverfordwest's recent form includes two wins, which could indicate potential for an upset. Both teams to score has a probability of 54%, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 56%. These numbers suggest that while Caernarfon Town is favored, Haverfordwest could still find the net and contribute to a higher-scoring match.
Haverfordwest County AFC vs Caernarfon Town: model vs market
| Source | Haverfordwest County AFC | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17% | 23% | 60% |
| Market | 20% | 23% | 57% |
| Published | 19% | 23% | 58% |
| Edge | -4% | 0% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Caernarfon Town below the model: +3.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.61, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Haverfordwest County AFC vs Caernarfon Town odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Caernarfon Town, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Haverfordwest County AFC | 4.50 | 4.50 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.90 | 3.90 | +0.00 |
| Caernarfon Town | 1.59 | 1.59 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Haverfordwest County AFC and Caernarfon Town expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.91
- Attack rating (Haverfordwest County AFC / Caernarfon Town)
- 0.63 / 1.62
- Defence rating (Haverfordwest County AFC / Caernarfon Town)
- 0.86 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Haverfordwest County AFC vs Caernarfon Town score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Haverfordwest County AFC goals. Columns: Caernarfon Town goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Haverfordwest County AFC vs Caernarfon Town goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Haverfordwest County AFC vs Caernarfon Town
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 19% | 5.21 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.31 | |
| Caernarfon Town | 58% | 1.74 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.25 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.87 |
| No | 46% | 2.15 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Haverfordwest County AFC or draw) | 42% | 2.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Caernarfon Town) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| Handicap -1 | Caernarfon Town win by 2+ | 37% | 2.72 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Haverfordwest County AFC and Caernarfon Town recent form
Haverfordwest County AFC
2W 1D 3L
Caernarfon Town
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Haverfordwest County AFC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-4
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 0.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.43
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 11 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Caernarfon Town away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 3.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.6 goals per game at home against 2.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Haverfordwest County AFC at home only, Caernarfon Town away only.
Haverfordwest County AFC vs Caernarfon Town head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Haverfordwest County AFC 0 · draws 2 · Caernarfon Town 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | Caernarfon Town | 2-2 | Haverfordwest County AFC | Wales Premier League |
| 2025-08-30 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 1-1 | Caernarfon Town | Wales Premier League |
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