Cardiff MET vs Trefelin preview
Cardiff MET faces Trefelin in the Wales Premier League, with a strong 72% probability for a Cardiff MET win according to the model. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, showing confidence in Cardiff MET's attack, which is reflected in their expected goals of 2.49 compared to Trefelin's 0.57.
However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. Both teams to score is at 40%, suggesting that while Cardiff MET is expected to dominate, Trefelin could still find a way to score. With 59% for Over 2.5 goals, if Trefelin manages to improve their recent form, the match could see more goals than anticipated.
Cardiff MET vs Trefelin: model vs market
| Source | Cardiff MET | Draw | Trefelin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 79% | 15% | 6% |
| Market | 70% | 18% | 12% |
| Published | 72% | 17% | 10% |
| Edge | +9% | -3% | -6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.49 vs 0.57.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Cardiff MET below the model: +8.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.30, recorded — the top price across the 4 books we record, each at its own last update.
Cardiff MET vs Trefelin odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cardiff MET, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff MET | 1.29 | 1.29 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.95 | 4.95 | +0.00 |
| Trefelin | 7.67 | 7.67 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cardiff MET and Trefelin expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.06
- Attack rating (Cardiff MET / Trefelin)
- 1.09 / 0.51
- Defence rating (Cardiff MET / Trefelin)
- 0.79 / 1.44
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cardiff MET vs Trefelin score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cardiff MET goals. Columns: Trefelin goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cardiff MET vs Trefelin goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 40%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cardiff MET vs Trefelin
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cardiff MET | 72% | 1.38 |
| Draw | 17% | 5.72 | |
| Trefelin | 10% | 9.76 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40% | 2.48 |
| No | 60% | 1.68 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cardiff MET or draw) | 90% | 1.11 |
| 12 (either side) | 83% | 1.21 | |
| X2 (draw or Trefelin) | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cardiff MET win by 2+ | 57% | 1.74 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cardiff MET and Trefelin recent form
Cardiff MET
2W 3D 1L
Trefelin
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cardiff MET at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Trefelin away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 0 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 11 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cardiff MET at home only, Trefelin away only.
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