Holywell vs The New Saints preview
The match between Holywell and The New Saints shows a clear disparity, with The New Saints holding a 93% probability to win in the 1X2 market. The most likely scoreline is 0-4, which aligns with the high expectation of Over 2.5 goals at 87%. Holywell's recent form, with five losses and just one draw in their last six matches, contrasts sharply with The New Saints' perfect winning streak.
However, the prediction could be affected if Holywell manages to score, as both teams to score has a 45% probability. If Holywell finds the net, it could change the dynamics of the match and impact the overall scoring. With expected goals of 0.61 for Holywell and 4.37 for The New Saints, the latter's attacking strength is evident.
Holywell vs The New Saints: model vs market
| Source | Holywell | Draw | The New Saints |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 1% | 5% | 94% |
| Market | 2% | 6% | 92% |
| Published | 2% | 5% | 93% |
| Edge | -1% | -1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 4.37 vs 0.61.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.03, recorded — the top price across the 3 books we record, each at its own last update.
Holywell vs The New Saints odds movement
Median bookmaker price on The New Saints, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Holywell | 41.00 | 41.00 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 17.00 | 17.00 | +0.00 |
| The New Saints | 1.03 | 1.03 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Holywell and The New Saints expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.98
- Attack rating (Holywell / The New Saints)
- 0.76 / 1.92
- Defence rating (Holywell / The New Saints)
- 1.62 / 0.50
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Holywell vs The New Saints score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Holywell goals. Columns: The New Saints goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Holywell vs The New Saints goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 1%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Holywell vs The New Saints
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Holywell | 2% | 47.73 |
| Draw | 5% | 18.81 | |
| The New Saints | 93% | 1.08 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 87% | 1.15 |
| Under 2.5 | 13% | 7.88 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.22 |
| No | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Holywell or draw) | 7% | 13.49 |
| 12 (either side) | 95% | 1.06 | |
| X2 (draw or The New Saints) | 98% | 1.02 | |
| Handicap -1 | The New Saints win by 2+ | 85% | 1.18 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 9% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Holywell and The New Saints recent form
Holywell
0W 2D 4L
The New Saints
6W 0D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Holywell at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 0 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
The New Saints away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-0
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 2.60
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 10 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Holywell at home only, The New Saints away only.
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