Albania vs San Marino preview
Albania faces San Marino in the UEFA Nations League, and the model gives Albania a strong 93% chance to win. The most likely scoreline is 3-0, which aligns with the high expectation of Over 2.5 goals at 79%. However, the prediction could be affected if San Marino manages to score, as both teams to score is only at 32%.
Albania's recent form shows two wins in their last five matches, while San Marino has lost all six of their latest games. The expected goals indicate a significant difference, with Albania at 3.78 and San Marino at just 0.39. The confidence grade is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the predictions, influenced by market odds.
Albania vs San Marino: model vs market
| Source | Albania | Draw | San Marino |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 94% | 5% | 1% |
| Market | 93% | 5% | 2% |
| Published | 93% | 5% | 2% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.78 vs 0.39.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.04, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Albania vs San Marino odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Albania, 5 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Albania | 1.02 | 1.02 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 21.00 | 18.25 | -2.75 |
| San Marino | 56.00 | 51.00 | -5.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Albania and San Marino expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.17
- Attack rating (Albania / San Marino)
- 1.01 / 0.40
- Defence rating (Albania / San Marino)
- 0.79 / 3.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Albania vs San Marino score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Albania goals. Columns: San Marino goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Albania vs San Marino goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 32%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Albania vs San Marino
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Albania | 93% | 1.07 |
| Draw | 5% | 19.07 | |
| San Marino | 2% | 59.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79% | 1.27 |
| Under 2.5 | 21% | 4.67 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32% | 3.12 |
| No | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Albania or draw) | 98% | 1.02 |
| 12 (either side) | 95% | 1.06 | |
| X2 (draw or San Marino) | 7% | 14.41 | |
| Handicap -1 | Albania win by 2+ | 82% | 1.21 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 11% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Albania and San Marino recent form
Albania
3W 0D 3L
San Marino
0W 0D 6L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Albania at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
San Marino away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 4.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Albania at home only, San Marino away only.
Albania vs San Marino head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Albania 3 · draws 0 · San Marino 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | San Marino | 0-3 | Albania | UEFA Nations League |
| 2021-09-08 | Albania | 5-0 | San Marino | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| 2021-03-31 | San Marino | 0-2 | Albania | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
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