Belarus vs Finland Prediction & Betting Tips 06/10/2026

Belarus vs Finland preview

In the UEFA Nations League fixture between Belarus and Finland, the model gives Finland a 49% chance to win compared to Belarus's 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.13 for Belarus and 1.83 for Finland.

Both teams to score has a probability of 58%, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 57%. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating that the predictions could be affected by Belarus's recent form of W-D-L-D-D-L, which shows inconsistency, and Finland's mixed results of W-D-W-L-L-W.

Belarus vs Finland: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Belarus	Draw	Finland
Model	22%	25%	53%
Market	23%	29%	48%
Published	23%	28%	49%
Edge	-1%	-4%	+5%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 1.13.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
The market prices Finland below the model: +4.8 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.02, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.

Belarus vs Finland odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Finland, 5 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 2.05Now 1.95 -0.10

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Belarus	3.45	4.10	+0.65
Draw	3.38	3.20	-0.17
Finland	2.05	1.95	-0.10

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Belarus and Finland expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.13Belarus

1.83Finland

Total expected goals: 2.96
Attack rating (Belarus / Finland): 0.86 / 1.29
Defence rating (Belarus / Finland): 1.14 / 1.07

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Belarus vs Finland score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.3% 8.5% 8.7% 5.3% 3.7% 1 4.8% 11.8% 9.8% 6.0% 4.1% 2 3.3% 6.0% 5.5% 3.4% 2.3% 3 1.2% 2.3% 2.1% 1.3% 0.9% 4+ 0.4% 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3%

Rows: Belarus goals. Columns: Finland goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Belarus vs Finland goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%

Over 1.5 80%

Over 2.5 57%

Over 3.5 34%

Both teams to score: 58%
No goals (0–0): 6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Belarus vs Finland

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Belarus	23%	4.41
	Draw	28%	3.55
	Finland	49%	2.03
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	57%	1.76
	Under 2.5	43%	2.31
Both teams to score	Yes	58%	1.73
	No	42%	2.37
Double chance	1X (Belarus or draw)	51%	1.97
	12 (either side)	72%	1.39
	X2 (draw or Finland)	77%	1.29
Handicap -1	Finland win by 2+	30%	3.28
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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