UEFA Nations League · League C - 4

Kazakhstan vs Faroe Islands

· Astana Arena, Astana· Referee Kristo Tohver

Full time2 – 2

Alin prediction was Kazakhstan to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
KazakhstanDrawFaroe Islands

Kazakhstan vs Faroe Islands: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceKazakhstanDrawFaroe Islands
Model25%28%47%
Market38%31%30%
Published35%31%34%
Edge-13%-3%+16%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Kazakhstan vs Faroe Islands odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Kazakhstan, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 2.49Now 2.45 -0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Kazakhstan2.492.45-0.04
Draw3.133.00-0.13
Faroe Islands2.903.10+0.20

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Kazakhstan and Faroe Islands expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.05Kazakhstan
1.51Faroe Islands
Total expected goals
2.56
Attack rating (Kazakhstan / Faroe Islands)
0.95 / 0.93
Defence rating (Kazakhstan / Faroe Islands)
1.31 / 0.91

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Kazakhstan vs Faroe Islands score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.9% 10.4% 8.8% 4.4% 2.3% 1 6.9% 13.5% 9.3% 4.7% 2.5% 2 4.3% 6.4% 4.9% 2.5% 1.3% 3 1.5% 2.3% 1.7% 0.9% 0.5% 4+ 0.5% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Kazakhstan goals. Columns: Faroe Islands goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Kazakhstan vs Faroe Islands goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 74%
Over 2.5 47%
Over 3.5 26%
Both teams to score
52%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Kazakhstan vs Faroe Islands

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Kazakhstan35%2.85
Draw31%3.27
Faroe Islands34%2.91
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.547%2.12
Under 2.553%1.89
Both teams to scoreYes52%1.93
No48%2.08
Double chance1X (Kazakhstan or draw)66%1.52
12 (either side)69%1.44
X2 (draw or Faroe Islands)65%1.54
Handicap -1Kazakhstan win by 2+10%10.13
Push (exactly one goal)15%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Kazakhstan and Faroe Islands recent form

Kazakhstan 1W 3D 2L
Faroe Islands 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Kazakhstan at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Faroe Islands away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Kazakhstan at home only, Faroe Islands away only.

Kazakhstan vs Faroe Islands head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Kazakhstan 0 · draws 1 · Faroe Islands 1.

KazakhstanDrawsFaroe Islands
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-09-26Faroe Islands1-1KazakhstanUEFA Nations League
2025-11-18Faroe Islands1-0KazakhstanFriendlies

Other League C - 4 fixtures