Moldova vs Slovakia Prediction & Betting Tips 06/10/2026

Moldova vs Slovakia preview

In the UEFA Nations League match between Moldova and Slovakia, the key number is Slovakia's 69% probability of winning according to the model 1X2 probabilities. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with Slovakia's expected goals of 2.58 compared to Moldova's 1.01.

However, the confidence grade is C, indicating that there could be uncertainty in the outcome. While the market suggests a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams to score at 60%, Moldova's recent form shows they have struggled, with three losses in their last five matches. This inconsistency could impact the predicted result.

Moldova vs Slovakia: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Moldova	Draw	Slovakia
Model	12%	18%	70%
Market	11%	20%	69%
Published	11%	20%	69%
Edge	+1%	-2%	+2%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.58 vs 1.01.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.41, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.

Moldova vs Slovakia odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Slovakia, 7 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 1.50Now 1.38 -0.12

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Moldova	6.00	8.40	+2.40
Draw	4.28	4.70	+0.42
Slovakia	1.50	1.38	-0.12

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Moldova and Slovakia expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.01Moldova

2.58Slovakia

Total expected goals: 3.60
Attack rating (Moldova / Slovakia): 0.73 / 1.10
Defence rating (Moldova / Slovakia): 1.89 / 1.13

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Moldova vs Slovakia score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.5% 6.4% 9.1% 7.9% 9.5% 1 2.1% 7.9% 9.3% 8.0% 9.6% 2 1.4% 3.6% 4.7% 4.0% 4.9% 3 0.5% 1.2% 1.6% 1.4% 1.6% 4+ 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.5%

Rows: Moldova goals. Columns: Slovakia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Moldova vs Slovakia goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 88%

Over 2.5 70%

Over 3.5 48%

Both teams to score: 60%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Moldova vs Slovakia

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Moldova	11%	8.75
	Draw	20%	5.12
	Slovakia	69%	1.45
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	70%	1.44
	Under 2.5	30%	3.30
Both teams to score	Yes	60%	1.68
	No	40%	2.48
Double chance	1X (Moldova or draw)	31%	3.23
	12 (either side)	80%	1.24
	X2 (draw or Slovakia)	89%	1.13
Handicap -1	Slovakia win by 2+	50%	2.01
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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