Estonia vs Iceland Prediction & Betting Tips 06/10/2026

Estonia vs Iceland preview

In the UEFA Nations League fixture between Estonia and Iceland, the key number is Iceland's 64% probability to win according to the model. The expected goals suggest a strong performance from Iceland at 2.70, while Estonia is projected at just 0.90. This points to a likely scoreline of 0-2, which occurs 10% of the time.

However, the match could deviate from this prediction. Estonia has shown some resilience with recent draws, and both teams to score has a 56% chance, indicating that Estonia could find the net. Additionally, the confidence grade is C, reflecting uncertainty in the predictions. The market's reaction to these factors could influence the outcome.

Estonia vs Iceland: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Estonia	Draw	Iceland
Model	9%	16%	75%
Market	16%	24%	60%
Published	15%	22%	64%
Edge	-7%	-8%	+15%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.70 vs 0.90.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
The market prices Iceland below the model: +14.7 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.

Estonia vs Iceland odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Iceland, 5 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 1.67Now 1.57 -0.10

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Estonia	4.74	5.75	+1.01
Draw	3.79	4.00	+0.21
Iceland	1.67	1.57	-0.10

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Estonia and Iceland expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.90Estonia

2.70Iceland

Total expected goals: 3.60
Attack rating (Estonia / Iceland): 0.71 / 1.54
Defence rating (Estonia / Iceland): 1.41 / 1.03

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Estonia vs Iceland score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.4% 6.7% 10.0% 9.0% 11.7% 1 1.8% 7.3% 9.0% 8.1% 10.5% 2 1.1% 3.0% 4.0% 3.6% 4.7% 3 0.3% 0.9% 1.2% 1.1% 1.4% 4+ 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4%

Rows: Estonia goals. Columns: Iceland goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Estonia vs Iceland goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 88%

Over 2.5 70%

Over 3.5 48%

Both teams to score: 56%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Estonia vs Iceland

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Estonia	15%	6.84
	Draw	22%	4.61
	Iceland	64%	1.57
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	70%	1.44
	Under 2.5	30%	3.30
Both teams to score	Yes	56%	1.79
	No	44%	2.27
Double chance	1X (Estonia or draw)	36%	2.76
	12 (either side)	78%	1.28
	X2 (draw or Iceland)	85%	1.17
Handicap -1	Iceland win by 2+	55%	1.83
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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