Luxembourg vs Bulgaria preview
In the UEFA Nations League fixture between Luxembourg and Bulgaria, the model gives Luxembourg a 40% chance to win, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 11%. Both teams to score has a probability of 46%, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 38%.
Recent form shows Luxembourg has lost five of their last six matches, while Bulgaria has a mixed record with two wins in their last six. The expected goals are close, with Luxembourg at 1.10 and Bulgaria at 1.13. A draw is also a possibility, given the 31% chance, which could affect the outcome if both teams perform better than expected.
Luxembourg vs Bulgaria: model vs market
| Source | Luxembourg | Draw | Bulgaria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 32% | 35% |
| Market | 42% | 30% | 28% |
| Published | 40% | 31% | 29% |
| Edge | -8% | +1% | +7% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.32, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Luxembourg vs Bulgaria odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Luxembourg, 5 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luxembourg | 2.05 | 2.24 | +0.19 |
| Draw | 3.33 | 3.10 | -0.23 |
| Bulgaria | 3.55 | 3.40 | -0.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Luxembourg and Bulgaria expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.22
- Attack rating (Luxembourg / Bulgaria)
- 0.55 / 0.64
- Defence rating (Luxembourg / Bulgaria)
- 1.42 / 1.64
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Luxembourg vs Bulgaria score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Luxembourg goals. Columns: Bulgaria goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Luxembourg vs Bulgaria goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Luxembourg vs Bulgaria
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Luxembourg | 40% | 2.51 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.26 | |
| Bulgaria | 29% | 3.39 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.61 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.16 |
| No | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Luxembourg or draw) | 71% | 1.42 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Bulgaria) | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Handicap -1 | Luxembourg win by 2+ | 14% | 7.17 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Luxembourg and Bulgaria recent form
Luxembourg
1W 0D 5L
Bulgaria
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Luxembourg at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Bulgaria away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Luxembourg at home only, Bulgaria away only.
Luxembourg vs Bulgaria head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Luxembourg 1 · draws 3 · Bulgaria 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Bulgaria | 1-2 | Luxembourg | UEFA Nations League |
| 2024-11-15 | Luxembourg | 0-1 | Bulgaria | UEFA Nations League |
| 2024-10-12 | Bulgaria | 0-0 | Luxembourg | UEFA Nations League |
| 2022-11-20 | Luxembourg | 0-0 | Bulgaria | Friendlies |
| 2017-10-10 | Luxembourg | 1-1 | Bulgaria | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| 2016-09-06 | Bulgaria | 4-3 | Luxembourg | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
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