Montenegro vs Armenia: model vs market
| Source | Montenegro | Draw | Armenia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60% | 21% | 19% |
| Market | 64% | 21% | 15% |
| Published | 63% | 21% | 16% |
| Edge | -4% | 0% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.33 vs 1.28.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Montenegro vs Armenia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Montenegro, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montenegro | 1.44 | 1.48 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 4.46 | 4.50 | +0.04 |
| Armenia | 6.37 | 6.20 | -0.17 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Montenegro and Armenia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.60
- Attack rating (Montenegro / Armenia)
- 1.17 / 0.72
- Defence rating (Montenegro / Armenia)
- 1.39 / 1.64
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Montenegro vs Armenia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Montenegro goals. Columns: Armenia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Montenegro vs Armenia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Montenegro vs Armenia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Montenegro | 63% | 1.59 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.77 | |
| Armenia | 16% | 6.14 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.31 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.51 |
| No | 34% | 2.95 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Montenegro or draw) | 84% | 1.19 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Armenia) | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Handicap -1 | Montenegro win by 2+ | 39% | 2.56 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Montenegro and Armenia recent form
Montenegro
4W 0D 2L
Armenia
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Montenegro at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Armenia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Montenegro at home only, Armenia away only.
Montenegro vs Armenia head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Montenegro 2 · draws 1 · Armenia 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Armenia | 2-3 | Montenegro | UEFA Nations League |
| 2025-06-09 | Montenegro | 2-2 | Armenia | Friendlies |
| 2022-03-24 | Armenia | 1-0 | Montenegro | Friendlies |
| 2017-06-10 | Montenegro | 4-1 | Armenia | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| 2016-11-11 | Armenia | 3-2 | Montenegro | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
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