UEFA Nations League · League C - 4

Cyprus vs Latvia

· GSP Stadium, Nicosia· Referee Giorgi Kruashvili

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was Cyprus to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
CyprusDrawLatvia

Cyprus vs Latvia: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCyprusDrawLatvia
Model52%28%20%
Market59%25%17%
Published57%26%17%
Edge-7%+3%+3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.52 vs 0.84.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Cyprus vs Latvia odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Cyprus, 5 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 1.68Now 1.60 -0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Cyprus1.681.60-0.08
Draw3.733.75+0.02
Latvia4.925.66+0.74

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Cyprus and Latvia expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.52Cyprus
0.84Latvia
Total expected goals
2.36
Attack rating (Cyprus / Latvia)
0.94 / 0.57
Defence rating (Cyprus / Latvia)
1.16 / 1.34

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Cyprus vs Latvia score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.6% 6.7% 3.4% 0.9% 0.2% 1 13.1% 13.3% 5.1% 1.4% 0.4% 2 10.9% 9.2% 3.9% 1.1% 0.3% 3 5.5% 4.6% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 4+ 2.9% 2.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Cyprus goals. Columns: Latvia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Cyprus vs Latvia goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 70%
Over 2.5 42%
Over 3.5 21%
Both teams to score
46%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Cyprus vs Latvia

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Cyprus57%1.76
Draw26%3.87
Latvia17%5.77
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.542%2.38
Under 2.558%1.72
Both teams to scoreYes46%2.19
No54%1.84
Double chance1X (Cyprus or draw)83%1.21
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Latvia)43%2.32
Handicap -1Cyprus win by 2+27%3.64
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Cyprus and Latvia recent form

Cyprus 2W 2D 2L
Latvia 0W 2D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Cyprus at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

Latvia away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Cyprus at home only, Latvia away only.

Cyprus vs Latvia head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Cyprus 0 · draws 2 · Latvia 0.

CyprusDrawsLatvia
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-09-28Latvia0-0CyprusUEFA Nations League
2024-03-21Cyprus1-1LatviaFriendlies

Other League C - 4 fixtures