Belarus vs San Marino: model vs market
| Source | Belarus | Draw | San Marino |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71% | 19% | 9% |
| Market | 89% | 9% | 3% |
| Published | 84% | 11% | 4% |
| Edge | -17% | +11% | +7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 0.69.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Belarus vs San Marino odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Belarus, 7 snapshots since 2026-09-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belarus | 1.14 | 1.07 | -0.07 |
| Draw | 8.40 | 11.00 | +2.60 |
| San Marino | 26.00 | 36.00 | +10.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Belarus and San Marino expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.93
- Attack rating (Belarus / San Marino)
- 0.62 / 0.42
- Defence rating (Belarus / San Marino)
- 1.25 / 3.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Belarus vs San Marino score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Belarus goals. Columns: San Marino goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Belarus vs San Marino goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Belarus vs San Marino
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Belarus | 84% | 1.18 |
| Draw | 11% | 8.86 | |
| San Marino | 4% | 23.23 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.20 |
| No | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Belarus or draw) | 96% | 1.04 |
| 12 (either side) | 89% | 1.13 | |
| X2 (draw or San Marino) | 16% | 6.41 | |
| Handicap -1 | Belarus win by 2+ | 49% | 2.05 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Belarus and San Marino recent form
Belarus
0W 3D 3L
San Marino
0W 0D 6L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Belarus vs San Marino head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Belarus 2 · draws 0 · San Marino 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-11-18 | San Marino | 0-2 | Belarus | UEFA Nations League |
| 2018-09-08 | Belarus | 5-0 | San Marino | UEFA Nations League |
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