UEFA Nations League · League C - 3

Estonia vs Luxembourg

· A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn· Referee Pawel Raczkowski

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was Luxembourg to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
EstoniaDrawLuxembourg

Estonia vs Luxembourg: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceEstoniaDrawLuxembourg
Model30%29%41%
Market31%32%37%
Published31%31%38%
Edge-1%-2%+4%
  • Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Luxembourg below the model: +3.6 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Estonia vs Luxembourg odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Luxembourg, 5 snapshots since 2026-10-01.

Opened 2.45Now 2.55 +0.10
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Estonia2.963.00+0.04
Draw3.102.98-0.12
Luxembourg2.452.55+0.10

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Estonia and Luxembourg expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.16Estonia
1.36Luxembourg
Total expected goals
2.51
Attack rating (Estonia / Luxembourg)
0.68 / 0.63
Defence rating (Estonia / Luxembourg)
1.62 / 1.48

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Estonia vs Luxembourg score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.4% 9.7% 7.5% 3.4% 1.5% 1 8.1% 14.0% 8.6% 3.9% 1.8% 2 5.4% 7.3% 5.0% 2.3% 1.0% 3 2.1% 2.8% 1.9% 0.9% 0.4% 4+ 0.8% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Estonia goals. Columns: Luxembourg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Estonia vs Luxembourg goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 73%
Over 2.5 46%
Over 3.5 25%
Both teams to score
52%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Estonia vs Luxembourg

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Estonia31%3.21
Draw31%3.22
Luxembourg38%2.64
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.546%2.17
Under 2.554%1.85
Both teams to scoreYes52%1.92
No48%2.09
Double chance1X (Estonia or draw)62%1.61
12 (either side)69%1.45
X2 (draw or Luxembourg)69%1.45
Handicap -1Luxembourg win by 2+19%5.20
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Estonia and Luxembourg recent form

Estonia 0W 3D 3L
Luxembourg 1W 0D 5L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Luxembourg away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Estonia at home only, Luxembourg away only.

Other League C - 3 fixtures