UEFA Nations League · League C - 3

Faroe Islands vs Slovakia

· Torsvollur, Torshavn· Referee Mohammed Al-Hakim

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Slovakia to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Faroe IslandsDrawSlovakia

Faroe Islands vs Slovakia: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFaroe IslandsDrawSlovakia
Model27%28%45%
Market14%24%62%
Published17%25%58%
Edge+13%+3%-16%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 1.17.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Faroe Islands vs Slovakia odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Slovakia, 6 snapshots since 2026-09-30.

Opened 1.64Now 1.53 -0.11
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Faroe Islands5.506.65+1.15
Draw3.623.90+0.28
Slovakia1.641.53-0.11

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Faroe Islands and Slovakia expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.17Faroe Islands
1.54Slovakia
Total expected goals
2.70
Attack rating (Faroe Islands / Slovakia)
0.92 / 1.19
Defence rating (Faroe Islands / Slovakia)
0.93 / 1.19

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Faroe Islands vs Slovakia score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.9% 9.1% 7.9% 4.0% 2.2% 1 6.6% 13.2% 9.2% 4.7% 2.6% 2 4.6% 7.0% 5.4% 2.8% 1.5% 3 1.8% 2.7% 2.1% 1.1% 0.6% 4+ 0.7% 1.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2%

Rows: Faroe Islands goals. Columns: Slovakia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Faroe Islands vs Slovakia goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 76%
Over 2.5 51%
Over 3.5 29%
Both teams to score
55%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Faroe Islands vs Slovakia

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Faroe Islands17%5.74
Draw25%3.99
Slovakia58%1.74
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551%1.97
Under 2.549%2.03
Both teams to scoreYes55%1.81
No45%2.23
Double chance1X (Faroe Islands or draw)42%2.36
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Slovakia)83%1.21
Handicap -1Slovakia win by 2+23%4.33
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Faroe Islands and Slovakia recent form

Faroe Islands 3W 2D 1L
Slovakia 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Faroe Islands at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Faroe Islands at home only, Slovakia away only.

Other League C - 3 fixtures