UEFA Nations League · League C - 3

Kazakhstan vs Moldova

· Astana Arena, Astana· Referee Marian Barbu

Full time1 – 2

Alin prediction was Kazakhstan to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
KazakhstanDrawMoldova

Kazakhstan vs Moldova: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceKazakhstanDrawMoldova
Model56%23%21%
Market51%28%21%
Published52%27%21%
Edge+5%-5%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.07 vs 1.23.
  • Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Kazakhstan below the model: +4.9 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Kazakhstan vs Moldova odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Kazakhstan, 9 snapshots since 2026-09-28.

Opened 1.68Now 1.85 +0.17
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Kazakhstan1.681.85+0.17
Draw3.673.39-0.28
Moldova5.224.40-0.82

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Kazakhstan and Moldova expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.07Kazakhstan
1.23Moldova
Total expected goals
3.29
Attack rating (Kazakhstan / Moldova)
0.96 / 0.67
Defence rating (Kazakhstan / Moldova)
1.32 / 2.04

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Kazakhstan vs Moldova score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.7% 3.6% 2.8% 1.1% 0.5% 1 6.7% 10.4% 5.8% 2.4% 0.9% 2 7.9% 9.7% 6.0% 2.4% 1.0% 3 5.5% 6.7% 4.1% 1.7% 0.7% 4+ 4.5% 5.6% 3.4% 1.4% 0.6%

Rows: Kazakhstan goals. Columns: Moldova goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Kazakhstan vs Moldova goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 85%
Over 2.5 64%
Over 3.5 42%
Both teams to score
63%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Kazakhstan vs Moldova

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Kazakhstan52%1.92
Draw27%3.77
Moldova21%4.68
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.564%1.56
Under 2.536%2.77
Both teams to scoreYes63%1.60
No37%2.68
Double chance1X (Kazakhstan or draw)79%1.27
12 (either side)73%1.36
X2 (draw or Moldova)48%2.09
Handicap -1Kazakhstan win by 2+34%2.92
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Kazakhstan and Moldova recent form

Kazakhstan 1W 3D 2L
Moldova 0W 2D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Moldova away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Kazakhstan at home only, Moldova away only.

Kazakhstan vs Moldova head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Kazakhstan 2 · draws 0 · Moldova 1.

KazakhstanDrawsMoldova
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2022-03-29Kazakhstan0-1MoldovaUEFA Nations League
2022-03-24Moldova1-2KazakhstanUEFA Nations League
2019-02-21Kazakhstan1-0MoldovaFriendlies

Other League C - 3 fixtures