UEFA Nations League · League C - 3

Finland vs Albania

· Helsinki Olympic Stadium, Helsinki· Referee Robert Hennessy

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was Finland to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FinlandDrawAlbania

Finland vs Albania: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFinlandDrawAlbania
Model23%29%48%
Market40%31%30%
Published35%30%34%
Edge-16%-2%+19%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Finland vs Albania odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Finland, 5 snapshots since 2026-10-01.

Opened 2.42Now 2.38 -0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Finland2.422.38-0.04
Draw3.203.05-0.15
Albania3.003.18+0.18

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Finland and Albania expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.96Finland
1.49Albania
Total expected goals
2.45
Attack rating (Finland / Albania)
1.23 / 1.00
Defence rating (Finland / Albania)
1.12 / 0.68

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Finland vs Albania score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.8% 11.6% 9.6% 4.8% 2.5% 1 7.0% 13.6% 9.2% 4.6% 2.4% 2 4.0% 5.9% 4.4% 2.2% 1.1% 3 1.3% 1.9% 1.4% 0.7% 0.4% 4+ 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Finland goals. Columns: Albania goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Finland vs Albania goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 72%
Over 2.5 44%
Over 3.5 23%
Both teams to score
49%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Finland vs Albania

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Finland35%2.82
Draw30%3.30
Albania34%2.92
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.544%2.25
Under 2.556%1.80
Both teams to scoreYes49%2.04
No51%1.97
Double chance1X (Finland or draw)66%1.52
12 (either side)70%1.43
X2 (draw or Albania)65%1.55
Handicap -1Finland win by 2+9%11.74
Push (exactly one goal)15%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Finland and Albania recent form

Finland 2W 1D 3L
Albania 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Finland at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

Albania away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Finland at home only, Albania away only.

Other League C - 3 fixtures