Cyprus vs Armenia: model vs market
| Source | Cyprus | Draw | Armenia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 26% | 38% |
| Market | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Published | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Edge | -5% | -2% | +8% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Cyprus vs Armenia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cyprus, 7 snapshots since 2026-09-29.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cyprus | 2.31 | 2.26 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 3.26 | 3.30 | +0.04 |
| Armenia | 2.98 | 3.13 | +0.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cyprus and Armenia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.09
- Attack rating (Cyprus / Armenia)
- 0.86 / 0.85
- Defence rating (Cyprus / Armenia)
- 1.33 / 1.69
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cyprus vs Armenia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cyprus goals. Columns: Armenia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cyprus vs Armenia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cyprus vs Armenia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cyprus | 40% | 2.49 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.59 | |
| Armenia | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.58 |
| No | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cyprus or draw) | 68% | 1.47 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Armenia) | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cyprus win by 2+ | 18% | 5.62 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Cyprus and Armenia recent form
Cyprus
1W 3D 2L
Armenia
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Cyprus vs Armenia head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Cyprus 0 · draws 1 · Armenia 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-28 | Armenia | 2-2 | Cyprus | Friendlies |
| 2017-11-13 | Armenia | 3-2 | Cyprus | Friendlies |
Other League C - 3 fixtures
- Kazakhstan v Moldova — match page 2026-10-02
- Latvia v Montenegro — match page 2026-10-02
- Faroe Islands vs Slovakia — team news & stats 2026-10-02
- Finland vs Albania — team news & stats 2026-10-03
- Iceland v Bulgaria — match page 2026-10-03
- Belarus vs San Marino — team news & stats 2026-10-03
- Estonia vs Luxembourg 2026-10-03