UEFA Nations League · League C - 3

Latvia vs Montenegro

· Skonto, Riga· Referee Radoslav Gidzhenov

Full time1 – 2

Alin prediction was Montenegro to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 0 – 2

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
LatviaDrawMontenegro

Latvia vs Montenegro: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLatviaDrawMontenegro
Model11%20%69%
Market19%27%54%
Published17%25%57%
Edge-8%-7%+15%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 0.82.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Montenegro below the model: +15.1 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Latvia vs Montenegro odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Montenegro, 9 snapshots since 2026-09-28.

Opened 1.79Now 1.76 -0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Latvia4.804.90+0.10
Draw3.393.50+0.11
Montenegro1.791.76-0.03

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Latvia and Montenegro expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.82Latvia
2.25Montenegro
Total expected goals
3.07
Attack rating (Latvia / Montenegro)
0.52 / 1.15
Defence rating (Latvia / Montenegro)
1.40 / 1.49

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Latvia vs Montenegro score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.5% 9.6% 11.7% 8.8% 8.4% 1 2.9% 9.4% 9.6% 7.2% 6.9% 2 1.6% 3.5% 4.0% 3.0% 2.8% 3 0.4% 1.0% 1.1% 0.8% 0.8% 4+ 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2%

Rows: Latvia goals. Columns: Montenegro goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Latvia vs Montenegro goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 59%
Over 3.5 37%
Both teams to score
51%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Latvia vs Montenegro

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Latvia17%5.77
Draw25%3.97
Montenegro57%1.74
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559%1.68
Under 2.541%2.46
Both teams to scoreYes51%1.95
No49%2.05
Double chance1X (Latvia or draw)43%2.35
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Montenegro)83%1.21
Handicap -1Montenegro win by 2+46%2.16
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Latvia and Montenegro recent form

Latvia 0W 2D 4L
Montenegro 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Latvia at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

Montenegro away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Latvia at home only, Montenegro away only.

Latvia vs Montenegro head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Latvia 0 · draws 2 · Montenegro 1.

LatviaDrawsMontenegro
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2021-09-07Montenegro0-0LatviaWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
2021-03-24Latvia1-2MontenegroWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
2020-10-07Montenegro1-1LatviaFriendlies

Other League C - 3 fixtures