UEFA Nations League · League C - 3

Iceland vs Bulgaria

· Ice Rink Laugardalur, Reykjavik· Referee Balazs Berke

Full time3 – 0

Alin prediction was Iceland to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
IcelandDrawBulgaria

Iceland vs Bulgaria: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceIcelandDrawBulgaria
Model71%17%12%
Market65%21%13%
Published67%20%13%
Edge+6%-4%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.62 vs 1.00.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Iceland below the model: +5.8 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Iceland vs Bulgaria odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Iceland, 5 snapshots since 2026-10-01.

Opened 1.42Now 1.44 +0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Iceland1.421.44+0.02
Draw4.454.40-0.05
Bulgaria7.507.00-0.50

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Iceland and Bulgaria expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.62Iceland
1.00Bulgaria
Total expected goals
3.62
Attack rating (Iceland / Bulgaria)
1.44 / 0.68
Defence rating (Iceland / Bulgaria)
1.11 / 1.58

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Iceland vs Bulgaria score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.4% 2.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 1 6.3% 7.7% 3.5% 1.2% 0.4% 2 9.2% 9.2% 4.6% 1.5% 0.5% 3 8.1% 8.0% 4.0% 1.3% 0.4% 4+ 9.9% 9.9% 4.9% 1.6% 0.5%

Rows: Iceland goals. Columns: Bulgaria goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Iceland vs Bulgaria goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 70%
Over 3.5 49%
Both teams to score
59%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Iceland vs Bulgaria

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Iceland67%1.50
Draw20%4.91
Bulgaria13%7.72
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.570%1.43
Under 2.530%3.32
Both teams to scoreYes59%1.68
No41%2.46
Double chance1X (Iceland or draw)87%1.15
12 (either side)80%1.26
X2 (draw or Bulgaria)33%3.00
Handicap -1Iceland win by 2+51%1.96
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Iceland and Bulgaria recent form

Iceland 2W 2D 2L
Bulgaria 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Iceland at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Iceland at home only, Bulgaria away only.

Other League C - 3 fixtures