Belgium vs Türkiye: model vs market
| Source | Belgium | Draw | Türkiye |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61% | 20% | 19% |
| Market | 61% | 21% | 18% |
| Published | 61% | 21% | 18% |
| Edge | 0% | -1% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.44 vs 1.31.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Belgium vs Türkiye odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Belgium, 8 snapshots since 2026-09-29.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 1.46 | 1.55 | +0.09 |
| Draw | 4.80 | 4.50 | -0.30 |
| Türkiye | 6.10 | 5.25 | -0.85 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Belgium and Türkiye expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.76
- Attack rating (Belgium / Türkiye)
- 1.78 / 1.14
- Defence rating (Belgium / Türkiye)
- 0.83 / 1.29
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Belgium vs Türkiye score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Belgium goals. Columns: Türkiye goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Belgium vs Türkiye goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Belgium vs Türkiye
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Belgium | 61% | 1.64 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.80 | |
| Türkiye | 18% | 5.48 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72% | 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 3.59 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.48 |
| No | 32% | 3.09 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Belgium or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Türkiye) | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Handicap -1 | Belgium win by 2+ | 41% | 2.44 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Belgium and Türkiye recent form
Belgium
4W 0D 2L
Türkiye
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Belgium at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Belgium at home only, Türkiye away only.
Other League A - 3 fixtures
- Denmark vs Portugal 2026-10-01
- Germany v Serbia — match page 2026-10-01
- Wales vs Norway — team news & stats 2026-10-01
- Greece vs Netherlands 2026-10-01
- France vs Italy 2026-10-02
- Croatia vs England 2026-10-03
- Spain v Czechia — match page 2026-10-03