Wales vs Norway: model vs market
| Source | Wales | Draw | Norway |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19% | 18% | 63% |
| Market | 15% | 20% | 66% |
| Published | 16% | 19% | 65% |
| Edge | +5% | -2% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.94 vs 1.67.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Wales vs Norway odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Norway, 13 snapshots since 2026-09-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wales | 3.40 | 6.50 | +3.10 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 4.80 | +1.30 |
| Norway | 1.95 | 1.45 | -0.50 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Wales and Norway expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.60
- Attack rating (Wales / Norway)
- 1.38 / 2.00
- Defence rating (Wales / Norway)
- 1.07 / 1.23
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Wales vs Norway score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Wales goals. Columns: Norway goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Wales vs Norway goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 77%
- No goals (0–0)
- 1%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Wales vs Norway
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wales | 16% | 6.32 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.20 | |
| Norway | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83% | 1.20 |
| Under 2.5 | 17% | 5.95 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77% | 1.30 |
| No | 23% | 4.31 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Wales or draw) | 35% | 2.85 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Norway) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| Handicap -1 | Norway win by 2+ | 45% | 2.24 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Wales and Norway recent form
Wales
2W 1D 3L
Norway
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Other League A - 3 fixtures
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- Belgium vs Türkiye — team news & stats 2026-10-02
- France vs Italy 2026-10-02
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- Spain v Czechia — match page 2026-10-03