Spain vs Czechia: model vs market
| Source | Spain | Draw | Czechia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 73% | 18% | 9% |
| Market | 90% | 7% | 3% |
| Published | 86% | 10% | 5% |
| Edge | -17% | +10% | +6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.42 vs 0.76.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Spain vs Czechia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Spain, 9 snapshots since 2026-09-29.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 1.21 | 1.07 | -0.14 |
| Draw | 5.96 | 13.50 | +7.54 |
| Czechia | 15.75 | 30.49 | +14.74 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Spain and Czechia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.18
- Attack rating (Spain / Czechia)
- 1.71 / 1.01
- Defence rating (Spain / Czechia)
- 0.56 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Spain vs Czechia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Spain goals. Columns: Czechia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Spain vs Czechia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Spain vs Czechia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Spain | 86% | 1.17 |
| Draw | 10% | 10.27 | |
| Czechia | 5% | 21.48 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.65 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.00 |
| No | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Spain or draw) | 95% | 1.05 |
| 12 (either side) | 90% | 1.11 | |
| X2 (draw or Czechia) | 14% | 6.95 | |
| Handicap -1 | Spain win by 2+ | 51% | 1.94 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Spain and Czechia recent form
Spain
6W 0D 0L
Czechia
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Spain at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Spain at home only, Czechia away only.
Spain vs Czechia head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Spain 2 · draws 1 · Czechia 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-06-12 | Spain | 2-0 | Czechia | UEFA Nations League |
| 2022-06-05 | Czechia | 2-2 | Spain | UEFA Nations League |
| 2016-06-13 | Spain | 1-0 | Czechia | Euro Championship |
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