Germany vs Serbia: model vs market
| Source | Germany | Draw | Serbia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 26% | 22% |
| Market | 79% | 14% | 7% |
| Published | 72% | 17% | 11% |
| Edge | -28% | +12% | +15% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.08.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Germany vs Serbia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Germany, 16 snapshots since 2026-09-24.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 1.50 | 1.20 | -0.30 |
| Draw | 3.00 | 6.95 | +3.95 |
| Serbia | 1.50 | 13.56 | +12.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Germany and Serbia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.83
- Attack rating (Germany / Serbia)
- 1.54 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Germany / Serbia)
- 0.83 / 1.16
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Germany vs Serbia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Germany goals. Columns: Serbia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Germany vs Serbia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Germany vs Serbia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Germany | 72% | 1.38 |
| Draw | 17% | 5.96 | |
| Serbia | 11% | 9.19 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Germany or draw) | 89% | 1.12 |
| 12 (either side) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| X2 (draw or Serbia) | 28% | 3.61 | |
| Handicap -1 | Germany win by 2+ | 29% | 3.43 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Germany and Serbia recent form
Germany
2W 2D 2L
Serbia
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Germany at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Germany at home only, Serbia away only.
Germany vs Serbia head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Germany 0 · draws 1 · Serbia 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-03-20 | Germany | 1-1 | Serbia | Friendlies |
| 2010-06-18 | Germany | 0-1 | Serbia | World Cup |
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