UEFA Nations League · League A - 3

Greece vs Netherlands

· Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki· Referee Marco Guida

Full time2 – 2

Alin prediction was Netherlands to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
GreeceDrawNetherlands

Greece vs Netherlands: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceGreeceDrawNetherlands
Model12%17%71%
Market29%26%45%
Published24%24%52%
Edge-17%-9%+26%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.72 vs 1.06.
  • The market prices Netherlands below the model: +26.2 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Greece vs Netherlands odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Netherlands, 13 snapshots since 2026-09-25.

Opened 1.95Now 2.10 +0.15
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Greece3.903.30-0.60
Draw3.503.65+0.15
Netherlands1.952.10+0.15

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Greece and Netherlands expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.06Greece
2.72Netherlands
Total expected goals
3.78
Attack rating (Greece / Netherlands)
1.30 / 1.90
Defence rating (Greece / Netherlands)
1.04 / 0.83

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Greece vs Netherlands score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.9% 5.6% 8.5% 7.7% 10.1% 1 1.8% 7.2% 8.9% 8.1% 10.7% 2 1.3% 3.5% 4.7% 4.3% 5.6% 3 0.4% 1.2% 1.7% 1.5% 2.0% 4+ 0.1% 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.7%

Rows: Greece goals. Columns: Netherlands goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Greece vs Netherlands goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 90%
Over 2.5 73%
Over 3.5 52%
Both teams to score
61%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Greece vs Netherlands

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Greece24%4.08
Draw24%4.21
Netherlands52%1.93
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.572%1.39
Under 2.528%3.58
Both teams to scoreYes61%1.64
No39%2.57
Double chance1X (Greece or draw)48%2.07
12 (either side)76%1.31
X2 (draw or Netherlands)76%1.32
Handicap -1Netherlands win by 2+52%1.93
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Greece and Netherlands recent form

Greece 3W 1D 2L
Netherlands 3W 3D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Netherlands away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Greece at home only, Netherlands away only.

Greece vs Netherlands head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Greece 0 · draws 0 · Netherlands 2.

GreeceDrawsNetherlands
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2023-10-16Greece0-1NetherlandsEuro Championship - Qualification
2023-09-07Netherlands3-0GreeceEuro Championship - Qualification

Other League A - 3 fixtures