UEFA Nations League · League A - 3

Croatia vs England

· Stadion Rujevica, Rijeka· Referee Sven Jablonski

Full time0 – 7

Alin prediction was England to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
CroatiaDrawEngland

Croatia vs England: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCroatiaDrawEngland
Model24%19%57%
Market22%24%54%
Published22%23%55%
Edge+2%-5%+3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.73 vs 1.82.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices England below the model: +2.9 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Croatia vs England odds movement

Median bookmaker price on England, 9 snapshots since 2026-09-29.

Opened 1.50Now 1.74 +0.24
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Croatia1.504.40+2.90
Draw3.003.94+0.94
England1.501.74+0.24

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Croatia and England expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.82Croatia
2.73England
Total expected goals
4.55
Attack rating (Croatia / England)
1.50 / 1.81
Defence rating (Croatia / England)
1.14 / 1.05

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Croatia vs England score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.6% 2.4% 3.9% 3.6% 4.7% 1 1.4% 5.8% 7.2% 6.5% 8.6% 2 1.7% 4.8% 6.5% 5.9% 7.9% 3 1.1% 2.9% 4.0% 3.6% 4.8% 4+ 0.7% 2.0% 2.7% 2.5% 3.3%

Rows: Croatia goals. Columns: England goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Croatia vs England goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 95%
Over 2.5 83%
Over 3.5 67%
Both teams to score
79%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Croatia vs England

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Croatia22%4.52
Draw23%4.40
England55%1.81
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.583%1.20
Under 2.517%6.01
Both teams to scoreYes79%1.27
No21%4.72
Double chance1X (Croatia or draw)45%2.23
12 (either side)77%1.29
X2 (draw or England)78%1.28
Handicap -1England win by 2+38%2.62
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Croatia and England recent form

Croatia 3W 0D 3L
England 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

England away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Croatia at home only, England away only.

Croatia vs England head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Croatia 1 · draws 1 · England 3.

CroatiaDrawsEngland
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-06-17England4-2CroatiaWorld Cup
2021-06-13England1-0CroatiaEuro Championship
2018-11-18England2-1CroatiaUEFA Nations League
2018-10-12Croatia0-0EnglandUEFA Nations League
2018-07-11Croatia2-1EnglandWorld Cup

Other League A - 3 fixtures