UEFA Nations League · League A - 3

Denmark vs Portugal

· Parken Stadium, Copenhagen· Referee Mikola Balakin

Full time2 – 4

Alin prediction was Portugal to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
DenmarkDrawPortugal

Denmark vs Portugal: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceDenmarkDrawPortugal
Model18%23%59%
Market28%26%46%
Published26%25%50%
Edge-10%-3%+13%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.10 vs 1.09.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Portugal below the model: +12.8 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Denmark vs Portugal odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Portugal, 13 snapshots since 2026-09-25.

Opened 2.00Now 2.05 +0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Denmark3.403.40+0.00
Draw3.303.70+0.40
Portugal2.002.05+0.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Denmark and Portugal expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.09Denmark
2.10Portugal
Total expected goals
3.19
Attack rating (Denmark / Portugal)
1.56 / 1.50
Defence rating (Denmark / Portugal)
1.01 / 0.72

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Denmark vs Portugal score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.1% 7.7% 9.1% 6.3% 5.4% 1 3.6% 10.4% 9.9% 6.9% 5.9% 2 2.5% 5.2% 5.4% 3.8% 3.2% 3 0.9% 1.9% 2.0% 1.4% 1.2% 4+ 0.3% 0.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4%

Rows: Denmark goals. Columns: Portugal goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Denmark vs Portugal goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 84%
Over 2.5 62%
Over 3.5 40%
Both teams to score
59%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Denmark vs Portugal

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Denmark26%3.92
Draw25%4.01
Portugal50%2.02
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561%1.64
Under 2.539%2.57
Both teams to scoreYes59%1.70
No41%2.43
Double chance1X (Denmark or draw)50%1.98
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Portugal)74%1.34
Handicap -1Portugal win by 2+37%2.68
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Denmark and Portugal recent form

Denmark 2W 2D 2L
Portugal 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Denmark at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

Portugal away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Denmark at home only, Portugal away only.

Denmark vs Portugal head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Denmark 1 · draws 0 · Portugal 2.

DenmarkDrawsPortugal
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-03-23Portugal5-2DenmarkUEFA Nations League
2025-03-20Denmark1-0PortugalUEFA Nations League
2012-06-13Denmark2-3PortugalEuro Championship

Other League A - 3 fixtures